TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124909
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911311511––––
Zdenek Dusek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Zdenek Dusek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 50 set 3, 5-11
50 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 2–0 Zdenek Dusek Zdenek Dusek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Nemec beat Dusek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dusek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dusek form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 2.10 / Dusek 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Dusek)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13124909
Nemec2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 78 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back15% 21 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 80
Dusek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 13 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it69% 9 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNemec2wins
AwayDusek0wins
Nemec leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricNemecDusekN − DBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match40.530.5+10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecDusekBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 778 vs 195 / 47347.4%41.2%369 / 778 vs 195 / 473Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DusekNemec 2.10/Dusek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Dusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 13 · 11:20M. Nemec4291111113Z. Dusek33115891
WAug 23 · 15:50M. Nemec3911611113Z. Dusek28211871
M. Nemec10
LSep 13 · 12:20M. Nemec2.753770R. Zeman1.401111113WSep 13 · 11:20M. Nemec2.5091111113Z. Dusek1.50115891LSep 13 · 10:20M. Nemec2.2511126101P. Cibik1.5741411123LSep 11 · 21:23J. Rolik1.441111113M. Nemec2.638260LSep 11 · 20:20J. Rolik1.671111113M. Nemec2.107980LSep 11 · 19:50P. Cibik1.571191011113M. Nemec2.2551112892LSep 11 · 18:50M. Nemec1.61812611102M. Kolbusovsky2.201110114123WSep 10 · 21:25M. Nemec1.8516911113J. Rolik1.851411881LSep 10 · 20:50R. Zeman1.441114123M. Nemec2.63612100WSep 10 · 19:50M. Nemec2.0011119173J. Rolik1.735711151
Z. Dusek10
LSep 13 · 12:50Z. Dusek1.837111091P. Cibik1.8311812113LSep 13 · 11:20M. Nemec2.5091111113Z. Dusek1.50115891LSep 13 · 10:50R. Zeman1.731511123Z. Dusek2.00138100LSep 9 · 17:50Z. Dusek1.83111011662P. Cibik1.83812911113WSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek1.8351111113P. Cibik1.83118691WSep 9 · 15:20S. Matousch1.8082131142Z. Dusek1.911111119113WSep 9 · 14:50M. Cesak2.00129781Z. Dusek1.73101111113WAug 31 · 21:30M. Dlask1.60111241182Z. Dusek2.20714119113LAug 31 · 20:50L. Vich1.7311714113Z. Dusek2.009111241WAug 31 · 19:50Z. Dusek1.5011119113M. Dlask2.50661161
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