TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13123092
Played Sep 13Finished
Zdenek Dusek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111181012911––
Pavel Cibik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Dusek above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 79 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Dusek 33–28 Pavel Cibik Pavel Cibik has won 28 of their 61 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 02:33What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-28 in 61
Dusek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dusek 1405 vs Cibik 1457
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dusek 40% vs Cibik 80%
Cibik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dusek 50% vs Cibik 90%
Cibik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dusek -3 · Cibik +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cibik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDusek 1.83 / Cibik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cibik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13123092
Dusek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Cibik1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDusek4wins
AwayCibik6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDusek60%3 of 5
AwayCibik80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dusek5Cibik5n = 10split evenly
S2Dusek6Cibik4n = 10Dusek took 6 of 10
S3Dusek6Cibik4n = 10Dusek took 6 of 10
S4Dusek1Cibik4n = 5Cibik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDusekCibikD − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.033.9+0.1per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDusekCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 472 vs 312 / 68141.3%45.8%195 / 472 vs 312 / 681Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikDusek 1.83/Cibik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 17:50Z. Dusek44111011662P. Cibik51812911113
WSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek3851111113P. Cibik34118691
LAug 5 · 21:53Z. Dusek25811511P. Cibik4211911113
LAug 5 · 19:50Z. Dusek258890P. Cibik331111113
WJun 14 · 20:25Z. Dusek331111113P. Cibik157530
WMay 17 · 20:55Z. Dusek331111113P. Cibik173590
WApr 12 · 08:20Z. Dusek331111113P. Cibik195680
LApr 8 · 21:25Z. Dusek379111071P. Cibik4311912113
LApr 8 · 20:20Z. Dusek188550P. Cibik331111113
LMar 6 · 21:20Z. Dusek541191211112P. Cibik525111013133
Z. Dusek10
WSep 13 · 13:25M. Nemec2.109350Z. Dusek1.671111113LSep 13 · 11:20M. Nemec2.5091111113Z. Dusek1.50115891LSep 13 · 10:50R. Zeman1.731511123Z. Dusek2.00138100LSep 9 · 17:50Z. Dusek1.83111011662P. Cibik1.83812911113WSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek1.8351111113P. Cibik1.83118691WSep 9 · 15:20S. Matousch1.8082131142Z. Dusek1.911111119113WSep 9 · 14:50M. Cesak2.00129781Z. Dusek1.73101111113WAug 31 · 21:30M. Dlask1.60111241182Z. Dusek2.20714119113LAug 31 · 20:50L. Vich1.7311714113Z. Dusek2.009111241WAug 31 · 19:50Z. Dusek1.5011119113M. Dlask2.50661161
P. Cibik10
WSep 13 · 11:50P. Cibik1.531111123R. Zeman2.3857100WSep 13 · 10:20M. Nemec2.2511126101P. Cibik1.5741411123WSep 12 · 18:29O. Hula1.67119891P. Cibik2.1061111113LSep 12 · 17:25O. Hula2.10111213113P. Cibik1.6713101121WSep 12 · 16:25P. Cibik1.5011111112123M. Kolbusovsky2.50136114102WSep 12 · 14:55R. Zeman2.3859111152P. Cibik1.53111188113WSep 11 · 21:55P. Cibik1.2511811113M. Kolbusovsky3.35611981WSep 11 · 20:50M. Kolbusovsky2.6311116852P. Cibik1.44591111113WSep 9 · 17:50Z. Dusek1.83111011662P. Cibik1.83812911113LSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek1.8351111113P. Cibik1.83118691
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