TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134161
Played Sep 15Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
112611114911511
Radek Zeman
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:36 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeRadek Zeman to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Radek Zeman below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 81 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Radek Zeman at 63.2%
81 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 64–101 Radek Zeman Michal Nemec has won 64 of their 165 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:36What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Zeman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
64-101 in 165
Zeman
Correct
gap of 37 in 165, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1310 vs Zeman 1411
Zeman
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 20% vs Zeman 60%
Zeman
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 20% vs Zeman 50%
Zeman
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec -2 · Zeman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Zeman) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 3.00 / Zeman 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Zeman)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13134161
Nemec3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 78 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 82
Zeman1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 110 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it89% 67 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it79% 87 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec3wins
AwayZeman7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZeman leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemec100%3 of 3
AwayZeman100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec3Zeman7n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S2Nemec2Zeman8n = 10Zeman took 8 of 10
S3Nemec3Zeman7n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S4Nemec5Zeman0n = 5Nemec took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecZemanN − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.036.5−3.5per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 779 vs 321 / 61647.4%52.1%369 / 779 vs 321 / 616Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanNemec 3.00/Zeman 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 12:20M. Nemec173770R. Zeman331111113
LSep 10 · 20:50M. Nemec28612100R. Zeman371114123
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec227960R. Zeman30111183
WSep 6 · 11:20M. Nemec4211911113R. Zeman33711871
LSep 4 · 16:50M. Nemec228770R. Zeman331111113
LAug 26 · 20:50M. Nemec208660R. Zeman331111113
WAug 25 · 20:50M. Nemec47111411113R. Zeman37716681
LAug 23 · 16:20M. Nemec47911611102R. Zeman44115115123
WAug 21 · 21:23M. Nemec4411811143R. Zeman419119121
LAug 21 · 20:20M. Nemec4171171152R. Zeman44117114113
M. Nemec10
LSep 15 · 20:20M. Nemec2.63101171172J. Mach1.44129119113WSep 15 · 19:20M. Nemec2.001111113M. Dlask1.737390LSep 13 · 13:25M. Nemec2.109350Z. Dusek1.671111113LSep 13 · 12:20M. Nemec2.753770R. Zeman1.401111113WSep 13 · 11:20M. Nemec2.5091111113Z. Dusek1.50115891LSep 13 · 10:20M. Nemec2.2511126101P. Cibik1.5741411123LSep 11 · 21:23J. Rolik1.441111113M. Nemec2.638260LSep 11 · 20:20J. Rolik1.671111113M. Nemec2.107980LSep 11 · 19:50P. Cibik1.571191011113M. Nemec2.2551112892LSep 11 · 18:50M. Nemec1.61812611102M. Kolbusovsky2.201110114123
R. Zeman10
WSep 15 · 20:50M. Dlask2.104640R. Zeman1.671111113WSep 15 · 19:50R. Zeman3.00811128113J. Mach1.36119101192LSep 13 · 13:55P. Cibik1.6161113113R. Zeman2.201191171WSep 13 · 12:20M. Nemec2.753770R. Zeman1.401111113LSep 13 · 11:50P. Cibik1.531111123R. Zeman2.3857100WSep 13 · 10:50R. Zeman1.731511123Z. Dusek2.00138100WSep 12 · 18:00R. Zeman1.131211113M. Kolbusovsky5.5010370WSep 12 · 16:55R. Zeman1.251111113M. Kolbusovsky3.754660LSep 12 · 15:55R. Zeman1.835580O. Hula1.831111113LSep 12 · 14:55R. Zeman2.3859111152P. Cibik1.53111188113
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