TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134410
Played Sep 15Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117113119––––
Marek Dlask
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:48 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMarek Dlask to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Marek Dlask below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 52 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Marek Dlask at 56.9%
52 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 20–27 Marek Dlask Michal Nemec has won 20 of their 47 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:48What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dlask
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-27 in 47
Dlask
Wrong
gap of 7 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1302 vs Dlask 1478
Dlask
Wrong
both rated, 176 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 20% vs Dlask 60%
Dlask
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 20% vs Dlask 50%
Dlask
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec -3 · Dlask -1
Nemec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dlask)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 2.00 / Dlask 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Dlask)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13134410
Nemec2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 78 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 82
Dlask1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 33 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec3wins
AwayDlask7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderDlask leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemec33.3%1 of 3
AwayDlask71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec3Dlask7n = 10Dlask took 7 of 10
S2Nemec4Dlask6n = 10Dlask took 6 of 10
S3Nemec6Dlask4n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S4Nemec6Dlask3n = 9Nemec took 6 of 9
S5Nemec1Dlask5n = 6Dlask took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecDlaskN − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.042.2+0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecDlaskBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 771 vs 142 / 30047.3%47.3%365 / 771 vs 142 / 300Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DlaskNemec 2.00/Dlask 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.9%
Dlask · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 18:20M. Nemec46109111152M. Dlask49121169113
LAug 26 · 21:20M. Nemec4791111972M. Dlask50119811113
LAug 26 · 18:20M. Nemec229850M. Dlask331111113
WAug 25 · 19:50M. Nemec4411139113M. Dlask356111171
LAug 19 · 19:50M. Nemec4597111172M. Dlask44111129113
LAug 18 · 21:50M. Nemec32781161M. Dlask3611113113
WAug 18 · 20:50M. Nemec43101111113M. Dlask29127641
WAug 13 · 21:55M. Nemec5411111011113M. Dlask3713112652
LAug 13 · 19:25M. Nemec51128121092M. Dlask5410111012113
LAug 10 · 19:20M. Nemec46114611142M. Dlask55911118163
M. Nemec10
LSep 15 · 20:20M. Nemec2.63101171172J. Mach1.44129119113LSep 15 · 18:20M. Nemec3.0011611952R. Zeman1.36211411113LSep 13 · 13:25M. Nemec2.109350Z. Dusek1.671111113LSep 13 · 12:20M. Nemec2.753770R. Zeman1.401111113WSep 13 · 11:20M. Nemec2.5091111113Z. Dusek1.50115891LSep 13 · 10:20M. Nemec2.2511126101P. Cibik1.5741411123LSep 11 · 21:23J. Rolik1.441111113M. Nemec2.638260LSep 11 · 20:20J. Rolik1.671111113M. Nemec2.107980LSep 11 · 19:50P. Cibik1.571191011113M. Nemec2.2551112892LSep 11 · 18:50M. Nemec1.61812611102M. Kolbusovsky2.201110114123
M. Dlask10
LSep 15 · 20:50M. Dlask2.104640R. Zeman1.671111113LSep 15 · 18:50J. Mach1.571111133M. Dlask2.2536110WSep 10 · 21:55M. Dlask1.921112113R. Zeman1.7871080LSep 10 · 20:20M. Dlask1.579151381J. Rolik2.25111315113WSep 10 · 19:20M. Dlask2.10114611113R. Zeman1.6781111652WSep 10 · 18:20M. Dlask1.67121169113M. Nemec2.10109111152LAug 31 · 21:30M. Dlask1.60111241182Z. Dusek2.20714119113WAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113LAug 31 · 19:50Z. Dusek1.5011119113M. Dlask2.50661161LAug 31 · 18:50M. Dlask3.001112541L. Vich1.3651411113
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