TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13015369
Played Aug 25Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
1.70
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5114111214––––
Jakub Mach
Away
1.96
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Nemec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Jakub Mach below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 57 set 3, 12-14 — our read held Michal Nemec at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 6–5 Jakub Mach Jakub Mach has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:22What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Nemec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1411 vs Mach 1530
Mach
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 80% vs Mach 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 70% vs Mach 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec +4 · Mach +2
Nemec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nemec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mach form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 1.70 / Mach 1.96
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Nemec)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13015369
Nemec1.70
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 90 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it78% 61 of 78
Mach1.96
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog31% won 21 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec6wins
AwayMach4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNemec leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemec100%3 of 3
AwayMach57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec3Mach7n = 10Mach took 7 of 10
S2Nemec8Mach2n = 10Nemec took 8 of 10
S3Nemec5Mach5n = 10split evenly
S4Nemec7Mach1n = 8Nemec took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecMachN − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.438.8+2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecMachBasisWin rate · lifetime392 / 794 vs 207 / 42949.4%48.3%392 / 794 vs 207 / 429Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NemecNemec 1.70/Mach 1.96
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Nemec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 18:20M. Nemec—91213113J. Mach—11101191
LAug 23 · 17:59M. Nemec—11190J. Mach—1113113
WAug 23 · 14:50M. Nemec—131111113J. Mach—156681
WAug 18 · 18:20M. Nemec—81111113J. Mach—115261
LJul 27 · 18:55M. Nemec—9118111J. Mach—11711133
WJul 25 · 11:55M. Nemec—11913113J. Mach—8111181
LJul 22 · 20:50M. Nemec—711712172J. Mach—1171110193
WJul 20 · 20:50M. Nemec—1111113J. Mach—9830
LJun 24 · 21:25M. Nemec—711814102J. Mach—1191112123
WJun 11 · 18:50M. Nemec—12116123J. Mach—10911101
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182LSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990WSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123
J. Mach10
WAug 25 · 20:20J. Mach1.571111811113M. Dlask2.2599111342WAug 25 · 19:20J. Mach1.5041111113R. Zeman2.50119891LAug 25 · 18:20J. Mach1.5011101191M. Nemec2.5091213113WAug 23 · 17:59J. Mach1.731113113M. Nemec2.0011190WAug 23 · 16:50J. Mach2.251112911113Z. Dusek1.5731411862WAug 23 · 15:18R. Zeman2.5010270J. Mach1.501211113LAug 23 · 14:50M. Nemec2.50131111113J. Mach1.47156681WAug 18 · 21:18J. Mach1.44711114113J. Rolik2.6311781162WAug 18 · 20:20J. Mach1.36111267133J. Rolik3.009101111112LAug 18 · 19:20J. Mach1.53131171182M. Dlask2.381181113113
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