TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12454678
Played Aug 18Finished
Jakub Mach
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11912106117111311
Jakub Rolik
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:30 and never touched — 79.8% is still 79.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Mach to win
79.8%
79.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Mach above · Jakub Rolik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 101 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Jakub Mach at 79.8%
101 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Mach 5–1 Jakub Rolik Jakub Rolik has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Mach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Mach
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mach 1527 vs Rolik 1290
Mach
Correct
both rated, 237 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mach 40% vs Rolik 20%
Mach
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mach 70% vs Rolik 20%
Mach
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mach -2 · Rolik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Mach)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rolik form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMach 1.36 / Rolik 3.00
Signal prob.80% / 20%
Edge (Mach)+11.0pp
TT Cup · #12454678
Mach1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 46 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Rolik3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 88 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back26% 31 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back18% 12 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMach5wins
AwayRolik1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderMach leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMach83.3%5 of 6
AwayRolikn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mach6Rolik0n = 6Mach took 6 of 6
S2Mach3Rolik3n = 6split evenly
S3Mach3Rolik3n = 6split evenly
S4Mach2Rolik1n = 3Mach took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMachRolikM − RBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set60+6of 6Avg pointsper match38.533.3+5.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachRolikBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 424 vs 293 / 61347.9%47.8%203 / 424 vs 293 / 613Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MachMach 1.36/Rolik 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.8%
Mach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJul 27 · 20:25J. Mach—1111113J. Rolik—7690
WJul 20 · 21:50J. Mach—1210511123J. Rolik—1012117102
WJul 20 · 19:20J. Mach—1112123J. Rolik—510100
LJul 14 · 18:50J. Mach—165361J. Rolik—141111113
WMar 1 · 14:25J. Mach—1111113J. Rolik—8720
WFeb 4 · 22:10J. Mach—119712113J. Rolik—611111012
J. Mach10
WAug 25 · 21:55M. Nemec1.7054120J. Mach1.961111143WAug 25 · 20:20J. Mach1.571111811113M. Dlask2.2599111342WAug 25 · 19:20J. Mach1.5041111113R. Zeman2.50119891LAug 25 · 18:20J. Mach1.5011101191M. Nemec2.5091213113WAug 23 · 17:59J. Mach1.731113113M. Nemec2.0011190WAug 23 · 16:50J. Mach2.251112911113Z. Dusek1.5731411862WAug 23 · 15:18R. Zeman2.5010270J. Mach1.501211113LAug 23 · 14:50M. Nemec2.50131111113J. Mach1.47156681WAug 18 · 21:18J. Mach1.44711114113J. Rolik2.6311781162LAug 18 · 19:20J. Mach1.53131171182M. Dlask2.381181113113
J. Rolik10
LSep 4 · 17:50R. Zeman1.711114113J. Rolik2.0061260LSep 4 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.751181110113J. Rolik1.4071181282WSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113WSep 4 · 14:50J. Rolik2.20781111113R. Zeman1.6111114462WSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990LSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133WSep 3 · 15:20J. Rolik1.91711611113J. Brynych1.8011711982WSep 3 · 14:20J. Rolik1.731113512113M. Nemec2.00911111482WSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LAug 18 · 21:18J. Mach1.44711114113J. Rolik2.6311781162
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