TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12454486
Played Aug 18Finished
Jakub Mach
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
13111187111113811
Marek Dlask
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:41 and never touched — 69.8% is still 69.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Mach to win
69.8%
69.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Mach above · Marek Dlask below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 104 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jakub Mach at 69.8%
104 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Mach 13–10 Marek Dlask Marek Dlask has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:41What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Mach
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-10 in 23
Mach
Wrong
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mach 1527 vs Dlask 1508
Mach
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mach 60% vs Dlask 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mach 80% vs Dlask 60%
Mach
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mach -1 · Dlask +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Mach)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dlask form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMach 1.53 / Dlask 2.38
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Mach)+9.0pp
TT Cup · #12454486
Mach1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 46 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Dlask2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 27 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back35% 12 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back18% 4 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMach4wins
AwayDlask6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDlask leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMach42.9%3 of 7
AwayDlask66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mach7Dlask3n = 10Mach took 7 of 10
S2Mach8Dlask2n = 10Mach took 8 of 10
S3Mach4Dlask6n = 10Dlask took 6 of 10
S4Mach2Dlask5n = 7Dlask took 5 of 7
S5Mach0Dlask4n = 4Dlask took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachDlaskM − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.638.0+0.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachDlaskBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 424 vs 149 / 30547.9%48.9%203 / 424 vs 149 / 305Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MachMach 1.53/Dlask 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.8%
Mach · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dlask won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 22 · 22:03J. Mach—11119113M. Dlask—361151
LJul 22 · 18:20J. Mach—1111551M. Dlask—13711113
LJul 14 · 19:20J. Mach—13111982M. Dlask—1151111113
LJun 24 · 22:35J. Mach—121166102M. Dlask—1091111123
WJun 24 · 18:55J. Mach—1111113M. Dlask—3850
LJun 11 · 19:20J. Mach—11912452M. Dlask—5111011113
LJun 2 · 20:20J. Mach—10690M. Dlask—1211113
WMay 21 · 18:55J. Mach—81111133M. Dlask—1137111
LDec 17 · 20:20J. Mach—111171272M. Dlask—981114113
WOct 29 · 21:10J. Mach—1211123M. Dlask—108100
J. Mach10
WAug 25 · 21:55M. Nemec1.7054120J. Mach1.961111143WAug 25 · 20:20J. Mach1.571111811113M. Dlask2.2599111342WAug 25 · 19:20J. Mach1.5041111113R. Zeman2.50119891LAug 25 · 18:20J. Mach1.5011101191M. Nemec2.5091213113WAug 23 · 17:59J. Mach1.731113113M. Nemec2.0011190WAug 23 · 16:50J. Mach2.251112911113Z. Dusek1.5731411862WAug 23 · 15:18R. Zeman2.5010270J. Mach1.501211113LAug 23 · 14:50M. Nemec2.50131111113J. Mach1.47156681WAug 18 · 21:18J. Mach1.44711114113J. Rolik2.6311781162WAug 18 · 20:20J. Mach1.36111267133J. Rolik3.009101111112
M. Dlask10
LAug 31 · 21:30M. Dlask1.60111241182Z. Dusek2.20714119113WAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113LAug 31 · 19:50Z. Dusek1.5011119113M. Dlask2.50661161LAug 31 · 18:50M. Dlask3.001112541L. Vich1.3651411113WAug 26 · 21:20M. Dlask1.67119811113M. Nemec2.1091111972LAug 26 · 20:20M. Dlask1.5789100J. Rolik2.251111123LAug 26 · 19:20M. Dlask2.20261181R. Zeman1.6111118113WAug 26 · 18:20M. Dlask1.731111113M. Nemec2.009850LAug 25 · 21:25M. Dlask2.2061171182R. Zeman1.61118116113LAug 25 · 20:20J. Mach1.571111811113M. Dlask2.2599111342
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