TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12479277
Played Aug 23Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1315116116118––
Jakub Mach
Away
1.47
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:48 and never touched — 71.0% is still 71.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Mach to win
71.0%
71.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Jakub Mach below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 81 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Mach at 71.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 3–4 Jakub Mach Michal Nemec has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (63%)
Mach
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1272 vs Mach 1540
Mach
Wrong
both rated, 269 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 20% vs Mach 60%
Mach
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 10% vs Mach 70%
Mach
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec +1 · Mach +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Mach)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 2.50 / Mach 1.47
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Mach)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #12479277
Nemec2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 75 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 69
Mach1.47
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 48 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeNemec3wins
AwayMach4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderMach leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemec100%3 of 3
AwayMach100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec3Mach4n = 7Mach took 4 of 7
S2Nemec6Mach1n = 7Nemec took 6 of 7
S3Nemec2Mach5n = 7Mach took 5 of 7
S4Nemec4Mach2n = 6Nemec took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricNemecMachN − MBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match43.042.7+0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecMachBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 786 vs 202 / 42249%47.9%385 / 786 vs 202 / 422Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MachNemec 2.50/Mach 1.47
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71%
Mach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 27 · 18:55M. Nemec—9118111J. Mach—11711133
WJul 25 · 11:55M. Nemec—11913113J. Mach—8111181
LJul 22 · 20:50M. Nemec—711712172J. Mach—1171110193
WJul 20 · 20:50M. Nemec—1111113J. Mach—9830
LJun 24 · 21:25M. Nemec—711814102J. Mach—1191112123
WJun 11 · 18:50M. Nemec—12116123J. Mach—10911101
LNov 21 · 22:10M. Nemec—71112101J. Mach—11914123
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.38914116113M. Nemec1.53111241182LSep 3 · 17:55J. Rolik1.801211113M. Nemec1.9010990WSep 3 · 16:50J. Brynych2.105117101M. Nemec1.6711911123
J. Mach10
WAug 25 · 21:55M. Nemec1.7054120J. Mach1.961111143WAug 25 · 20:20J. Mach1.571111811113M. Dlask2.2599111342WAug 25 · 19:20J. Mach1.5041111113R. Zeman2.50119891LAug 25 · 18:20J. Mach1.5011101191M. Nemec2.5091213113WAug 23 · 17:59J. Mach1.731113113M. Nemec2.0011190WAug 23 · 16:50J. Mach2.251112911113Z. Dusek1.5731411862WAug 23 · 15:18R. Zeman2.5010270J. Mach1.501211113WAug 18 · 21:18J. Mach1.44711114113J. Rolik2.6311781162WAug 18 · 20:20J. Mach1.36111267133J. Rolik3.009101111112LAug 18 · 19:20J. Mach1.53131171182M. Dlask2.381181113113
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