TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12481376
Played Aug 23Finished
Jakub Mach
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1111311119––––
Michal Nemec
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingJakub Mach above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9
56 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Mach 4–3 Michal Nemec Michal Nemec has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Mach)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mach form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMach 1.73 / Nemec 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Mach)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #12481376
Mach1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 48 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Nemec2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 75 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMach4wins
AwayNemec3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderMach leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMach100%4 of 4
AwayNemec100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mach4Nemec3n = 7Mach took 4 of 7
S2Mach1Nemec6n = 7Nemec took 6 of 7
S3Mach5Nemec2n = 7Mach took 5 of 7
S4Mach2Nemec4n = 6Nemec took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricMachNemecM − NBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match42.743.0−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 425 vs 386 / 78648%49.1%204 / 425 vs 386 / 786Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MachMach 1.73/Nemec 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Mach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 27 · 18:55J. Mach—11711133M. Nemec—9118111
LJul 25 · 11:55J. Mach—8111181M. Nemec—11913113
WJul 22 · 20:50J. Mach—1171110193M. Nemec—711712172
LJul 20 · 20:50J. Mach—9830M. Nemec—1111113
WJun 24 · 21:25J. Mach—1191112123M. Nemec—711814102
LJun 11 · 18:50J. Mach—10911101M. Nemec—12116123
WNov 21 · 22:10J. Mach—11914123M. Nemec—71112101
J. Mach10
WAug 25 · 21:55M. Nemec1.7054120J. Mach1.961111143WAug 25 · 20:20J. Mach1.571111811113M. Dlask2.2599111342WAug 25 · 19:20J. Mach1.5041111113R. Zeman2.50119891LAug 25 · 18:20J. Mach1.5011101191M. Nemec2.5091213113WAug 23 · 16:50J. Mach2.251112911113Z. Dusek1.5731411862WAug 23 · 15:18R. Zeman2.5010270J. Mach1.501211113LAug 23 · 14:50M. Nemec2.50131111113J. Mach1.47156681WAug 18 · 21:18J. Mach1.44711114113J. Rolik2.6311781162WAug 18 · 20:20J. Mach1.36111267133J. Rolik3.009101111112LAug 18 · 19:20J. Mach1.53131171182M. Dlask2.381181113113
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LAug 25 · 21:55M. Nemec1.7054120J. Mach1.961111143WAug 25 · 18:20J. Mach1.5011101191M. Nemec2.5091213113WAug 23 · 14:50M. Nemec2.50131111113J. Mach1.47156681
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