TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12480913
Played Aug 23Finished
Jakub Mach
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1131214911118116
Zdenek Dusek
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeZdenek Dusek to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Mach above · Zdenek Dusek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 96 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Zdenek Dusek at 61.9%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Mach 7–14 Zdenek Dusek Jakub Mach has won 7 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:52What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dusek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-14 in 21
Dusek
Wrong
gap of 7 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mach 1528 vs Dusek 1311
Mach
Correct
both rated, 216 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mach 60% vs Dusek 40%
Mach
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mach 60% vs Dusek 20%
Mach
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mach +1 · Dusek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Dusek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dusek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMach 2.25 / Dusek 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Dusek)+3.0pp
TT Cup · #12480913
Mach2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog29% won 20 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Dusek1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 19 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it67% 14 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMach2wins
AwayDusek8wins
Dusek leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMach66.7%2 of 3
AwayDusek100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mach3Dusek7n = 10Dusek took 7 of 10
S2Mach6Dusek4n = 10Mach took 6 of 10
S3Mach1Dusek9n = 10Dusek took 9 of 10
S4Mach1Dusek5n = 6Dusek took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachDusekM − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.537.3−6.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachDusekBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 424 vs 195 / 47647.9%41%203 / 424 vs 195 / 476Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DusekMach 2.25/Dusek 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.9%
Dusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 23 · 21:30J. Mach—5111241Z. Dusek—11914113
LApr 23 · 20:20J. Mach—1111861Z. Dusek—13811113
WApr 12 · 10:00J. Mach—111110113Z. Dusek—891231
LApr 12 · 07:50J. Mach—76100Z. Dusek—1111123
LApr 8 · 19:20J. Mach—7960Z. Dusek—1111113
WMar 10 · 22:30J. Mach—1111163Z. Dusek—69140
LMar 10 · 20:20J. Mach—311751Z. Dusek—11711113
LMar 2 · 22:20J. Mach—6460Z. Dusek—1111113
LMar 2 · 21:20J. Mach—114871Z. Dusek—81111113
LFeb 24 · 23:00J. Mach—10117111Z. Dusek—12711133
J. Mach10
WAug 25 · 21:55M. Nemec1.7054120J. Mach1.961111143WAug 25 · 20:20J. Mach1.571111811113M. Dlask2.2599111342WAug 25 · 19:20J. Mach1.5041111113R. Zeman2.50119891LAug 25 · 18:20J. Mach1.5011101191M. Nemec2.5091213113WAug 23 · 17:59J. Mach1.731113113M. Nemec2.0011190WAug 23 · 15:18R. Zeman2.5010270J. Mach1.501211113LAug 23 · 14:50M. Nemec2.50131111113J. Mach1.47156681WAug 18 · 21:18J. Mach1.44711114113J. Rolik2.6311781162WAug 18 · 20:20J. Mach1.36111267133J. Rolik3.009101111112LAug 18 · 19:20J. Mach1.53131171182M. Dlask2.381181113113
Z. Dusek10
WAug 31 · 21:30M. Dlask1.60111241182Z. Dusek2.20714119113LAug 31 · 20:50L. Vich1.7311714113Z. Dusek2.009111241WAug 31 · 19:50Z. Dusek1.5011119113M. Dlask2.50661161LAug 31 · 18:20S. Matousch2.251111123Z. Dusek1.5736100WAug 27 · 21:28Z. Dusek2.2511135113T. Barsa1.578111171LAug 27 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.61821113113Z. Dusek2.20111161152WAug 27 · 19:50Z. Dusek2.38118411113T. Barsa1.5361111562LAug 27 · 18:20T. Jr1.331111153Z. Dusek3.2546130LAug 24 · 21:23T. Jr1.361111123Z. Dusek3.0067100LAug 24 · 20:50Z. Dusek2.2511117892T. Barsa1.57791111113
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