TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13011270
Played Aug 25Finished
Jakub Mach
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11910121113911––
Michal Nemec
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:06 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeJakub Mach to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Mach above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 86 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Mach at 55.2%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Mach 5–6 Michal Nemec Jakub Mach has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Mach
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mach 1530 vs Nemec 1398
Mach
Wrong
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mach 80% vs Nemec 60%
Mach
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mach 60% vs Nemec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mach +3 · Nemec +1
Mach
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Mach) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMach 1.50 / Nemec 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Mach)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13011270
Mach1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 50 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it82% 23 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it76% 40 of 53
Nemec2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 78 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back18% 24 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMach4wins
AwayNemec6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNemec leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMach57.1%4 of 7
AwayNemec100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mach7Nemec3n = 10Mach took 7 of 10
S2Mach2Nemec8n = 10Nemec took 8 of 10
S3Mach5Nemec5n = 10split evenly
S4Mach1Nemec7n = 8Nemec took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachNemecM − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.841.4−2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 429 vs 391 / 79348.3%49.3%207 / 429 vs 391 / 793Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MachMach 1.50/Nemec 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Mach · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 18:20J. Mach—11101191M. Nemec—91213113
WAug 23 · 17:59J. Mach—1113113M. Nemec—11190
LAug 23 · 14:50J. Mach—156681M. Nemec—131111113
LAug 18 · 18:20J. Mach—115261M. Nemec—81111113
WJul 27 · 18:55J. Mach—11711133M. Nemec—9118111
LJul 25 · 11:55J. Mach—8111181M. Nemec—11913113
WJul 22 · 20:50J. Mach—1171110193M. Nemec—711712172
LJul 20 · 20:50J. Mach—9830M. Nemec—1111113
WJun 24 · 21:25J. Mach—1191112123M. Nemec—711814102
LJun 11 · 18:50J. Mach—10911101M. Nemec—12116123
J. Mach10
WAug 25 · 21:55M. Nemec1.7054120J. Mach1.961111143WAug 25 · 20:20J. Mach1.571111811113M. Dlask2.2599111342WAug 25 · 19:20J. Mach1.5041111113R. Zeman2.50119891WAug 23 · 17:59J. Mach1.731113113M. Nemec2.0011190WAug 23 · 16:50J. Mach2.251112911113Z. Dusek1.5731411862WAug 23 · 15:18R. Zeman2.5010270J. Mach1.501211113LAug 23 · 14:50M. Nemec2.50131111113J. Mach1.47156681WAug 18 · 21:18J. Mach1.44711114113J. Rolik2.6311781162WAug 18 · 20:20J. Mach1.36111267133J. Rolik3.009101111112LAug 18 · 19:20J. Mach1.53131171182M. Dlask2.381181113113
M. Nemec10
LSep 6 · 13:24M. Nemec2.457960R. Zeman1.48111183LSep 6 · 12:50M. Nemec2.2051350P. Cibik1.611115113WSep 6 · 11:20R. Zeman1.40711871M. Nemec2.7511911113WSep 6 · 10:50Z. Vyskocil1.508990M. Nemec2.501111113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky2.0013117113M. Nemec1.701161171LSep 4 · 16:50R. Zeman1.441111113M. Nemec2.638770LSep 4 · 15:50M. Nemec1.911171191J. Rolik1.8031113113LAug 25 · 21:55M. Nemec1.7054120J. Mach1.961111143LAug 23 · 17:59J. Mach1.731113113M. Nemec2.0011190WAug 23 · 14:50M. Nemec2.50131111113J. Mach1.47156681
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