TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13128806
Played Sep 14Finished
Ales Drozd
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111144111210115
Tomas Ogrocki
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Drozd above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Ales Drozd at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Ales Drozd 5–5 Tomas Ogrocki Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:31What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Drozd
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1466 vs Ogrocki 1334
Drozd
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 60% vs Ogrocki 40%
Drozd
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 60% vs Ogrocki 40%
Drozd
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd -2 · Ogrocki -3
Ogrocki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Drozd) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 1.57 / Ogrocki 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Drozd)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13128806
Drozd1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 42 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it71% 34 of 48
Ogrocki2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 59 of 141
Down 0–1, comes back28% 22 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDrozd5wins
AwayOgrocki5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrozd100%4 of 4
AwayOgrocki83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd4Ogrocki6n = 10Ogrocki took 6 of 10
S2Drozd7Ogrocki3n = 10Drozd took 7 of 10
S3Drozd5Ogrocki5n = 10split evenly
S4Drozd2Ogrocki4n = 6Ogrocki took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDrozdOgrockiD − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.735.4+1.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 262 vs 217 / 46750.8%46.5%133 / 262 vs 217 / 467Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdDrozd 1.57/Ogrocki 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Drozd won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 5 · 08:50A. Drozd331111113T. Ogrocki164570
LJul 5 · 08:15A. Drozd37811991T. Ogrocki4011711113
LJun 15 · 15:45A. Drozd399111181T. Ogrocki4311813113
WMay 31 · 15:40A. Drozd331111113T. Ogrocki218670
WMay 30 · 15:45A. Drozd3811115113T. Ogrocki31871151
LMay 22 · 17:15A. Drozd146350T. Ogrocki331111113
LMay 22 · 15:15A. Drozd49811111182T. Ogrocki51118813113
WMay 10 · 08:15A. Drozd51118119123T. Ogrocki45811511102
WMay 3 · 08:10A. Drozd4491111133T. Ogrocki381179111
LJan 31 · 17:15A. Drozd2981290T. Ogrocki361114113
A. Drozd10
WSep 14 · 14:45A. Drozd1.801111113K. Przeczek1.919770LSep 13 · 12:40A. Drozd1.6291111692P. Jokiel2.15118611113LSep 13 · 11:45A. Drozd1.574860O. Kus2.251111103WSep 13 · 10:45A. Drozd1.50118114123O. Skvor2.50811811102WSep 13 · 09:45A. Drozd1.831711610113P. Jokiel1.83158111282WSep 11 · 17:10A. Drozd2.051113113K. Baros1.6891160WSep 11 · 16:10A. Drozd1.911113113O. Skvor1.8061190LSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123LAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd1.50114771O. Kus2.5061111113
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 13 · 08:45T. Ogrocki1.5371161152R. Jancak2.38117115113LSep 13 · 07:45T. Ogrocki1.7314811932J. Sindler2.001211911113LSep 13 · 06:45T. Ogrocki2.5011451192D. Stefek1.50311119113WSep 13 · 05:45T. Ogrocki1.501111119113R. Jancak2.5089131182WSep 11 · 20:55O. Skvor1.61117871T. Ogrocki2.2081111113LSep 11 · 20:10T. Ogrocki1.6712117792I. Jemelka2.101081111113WSep 11 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.10813891T. Ogrocki1.67111111113LSep 11 · 18:10O. Skvor2.1071111113T. Ogrocki1.67116971WSep 10 · 20:44J. Vanous1.80851191T. Ogrocki1.9111115113LSep 10 · 20:10J. Vanous2.00831111113T. Ogrocki1.7311114942
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