TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13108554
Played Sep 10Finished
Jiri Vanous
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811311114119114
Tomas Ogrocki
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:13 and never touched — 66.2% is still 66.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
66.2%
66.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Vanous above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 83 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 66.2%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Vanous 8–19 Tomas Ogrocki Jiri Vanous has won 8 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ogrocki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-19 in 27
Ogrocki
Wrong
gap of 11 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vanous 1343 vs Ogrocki 1373
Ogrocki
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vanous 20% vs Ogrocki 60%
Ogrocki
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vanous 40% vs Ogrocki 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vanous -2 · Ogrocki -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Ogrocki) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vanous form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVanous 2.00 / Ogrocki 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Ogrocki)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13108554
Vanous2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 46 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back19% 11 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Ogrocki1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 59 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it75% 41 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVanous5wins
AwayOgrocki5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVanous75%3 of 4
AwayOgrocki66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vanous4Ogrocki6n = 10Ogrocki took 6 of 10
S2Vanous7Ogrocki3n = 10Vanous took 7 of 10
S3Vanous3Ogrocki7n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S4Vanous4Ogrocki4n = 8split evenly
S5Vanous2Ogrocki1n = 3Vanous took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVanousOgrockiV − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.838.6+1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanousOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 292 vs 213 / 45743.5%46.6%127 / 292 vs 213 / 457Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiVanous 2.00/Ogrocki 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vanous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 5 · 20:43J. Vanous—151111113T. Ogrocki—1351391
LAug 5 · 20:10J. Vanous—6111081T. Ogrocki—11512113
LJul 24 · 20:50J. Vanous—7135101T. Ogrocki—111111123
WJul 24 · 19:15J. Vanous—11121115113T. Ogrocki—614131372
WJul 16 · 20:33J. Vanous—91111113T. Ogrocki—118861
LJul 16 · 19:10J. Vanous—51171182T. Ogrocki—113118113
WJul 1 · 21:08J. Vanous—1111113T. Ogrocki—1970
WJul 1 · 19:10J. Vanous—911119113T. Ogrocki—11691162
LJun 26 · 21:15J. Vanous—115671T. Ogrocki—61111113
LJun 26 · 18:15J. Vanous—6890T. Ogrocki—1111113
J. Vanous10
LSep 10 · 20:44J. Vanous1.80851191T. Ogrocki1.9111115113LSep 10 · 18:40V. Reska1.5011117113J. Vanous2.50881191LSep 10 · 18:10F. Theodor1.5041511113J. Vanous2.501113931WSep 9 · 20:45V. Molin1.5099111182J. Vanous2.50111197113LSep 9 · 20:10J. Vanous1.6761161152I. Jemelka2.10114115113LSep 9 · 18:40V. Molin1.5311126113J. Vanous2.389101141LSep 9 · 18:10O. Skvor1.6712114113J. Vanous2.101091191LSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 20:10J. Vanous1.61111111113R. Benesz2.20813561WSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113
T. Ogrocki10
WSep 10 · 20:44J. Vanous1.80851191T. Ogrocki1.9111115113LSep 10 · 19:10T. Ogrocki2.7511371242F. Theodor1.405111110113LSep 10 · 17:40V. Reska1.441113113T. Ogrocki2.6361180WSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki1.6712128113P. Jokiel2.1010101151WSep 9 · 16:10O. Skvor1.5361011101T. Ogrocki2.3811125123WSep 9 · 15:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113P. Jokiel2.10791191WSep 9 · 13:40K. Przeczek1.619111112102T. Ogrocki2.20118714123LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 12:10J. Patrik1.73111111113T. Ogrocki2.00135891
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