TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13111488
Played Sep 10Finished
Jiri Vanous
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811511115911––
Tomas Ogrocki
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingJiri Vanous above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 71 set 4, 9-11
71 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Vanous 8–19 Tomas Ogrocki Jiri Vanous has won 8 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vanous)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vanous form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVanous 1.80 / Ogrocki 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vanous)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13111488
Vanous1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 30 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it76% 25 of 33
Ogrocki1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 59 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back27% 22 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVanous5wins
AwayOgrocki5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVanous75%3 of 4
AwayOgrocki66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vanous4Ogrocki6n = 10Ogrocki took 6 of 10
S2Vanous7Ogrocki3n = 10Vanous took 7 of 10
S3Vanous3Ogrocki7n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S4Vanous4Ogrocki4n = 8split evenly
S5Vanous2Ogrocki1n = 3Vanous took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVanousOgrockiV − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.838.6+1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanousOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 292 vs 213 / 45743.5%46.6%127 / 292 vs 213 / 457Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VanousVanous 1.80/Ogrocki 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vanous · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 5 · 20:43J. Vanous—151111113T. Ogrocki—1351391
LAug 5 · 20:10J. Vanous—6111081T. Ogrocki—11512113
LJul 24 · 20:50J. Vanous—7135101T. Ogrocki—111111123
WJul 24 · 19:15J. Vanous—11121115113T. Ogrocki—614131372
WJul 16 · 20:33J. Vanous—91111113T. Ogrocki—118861
LJul 16 · 19:10J. Vanous—51171182T. Ogrocki—113118113
WJul 1 · 21:08J. Vanous—1111113T. Ogrocki—1970
WJul 1 · 19:10J. Vanous—911119113T. Ogrocki—11691162
LJun 26 · 21:15J. Vanous—115671T. Ogrocki—61111113
LJun 26 · 18:15J. Vanous—6890T. Ogrocki—1111113
J. Vanous10
WSep 10 · 20:10J. Vanous2.00831111113T. Ogrocki1.7311114942LSep 10 · 18:40V. Reska1.5011117113J. Vanous2.50881191LSep 10 · 18:10F. Theodor1.5041511113J. Vanous2.501113931WSep 9 · 20:45V. Molin1.5099111182J. Vanous2.50111197113LSep 9 · 20:10J. Vanous1.6761161152I. Jemelka2.10114115113LSep 9 · 18:40V. Molin1.5311126113J. Vanous2.389101141LSep 9 · 18:10O. Skvor1.6712114113J. Vanous2.101091191LSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 20:10J. Vanous1.61111111113R. Benesz2.20813561WSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 10 · 20:10J. Vanous2.00831111113T. Ogrocki1.7311114942LSep 10 · 19:10T. Ogrocki2.7511371242F. Theodor1.405111110113LSep 10 · 17:40V. Reska1.441113113T. Ogrocki2.6361180WSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki1.6712128113P. Jokiel2.1010101151WSep 9 · 16:10O. Skvor1.5361011101T. Ogrocki2.3811125123WSep 9 · 15:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113P. Jokiel2.10791191WSep 9 · 13:40K. Przeczek1.619111112102T. Ogrocki2.20118714123LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 12:10J. Patrik1.73111111113T. Ogrocki2.00135891
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