TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13105299
Played Sep 9Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101210811115––
Patrik Jokiel
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 79 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 56.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 22–12 Patrik Jokiel Patrik Jokiel has won 12 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:03What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Ogrocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-12 in 34
Ogrocki
Correct
gap of 10 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1354 vs Jokiel 1404
Jokiel
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 40% vs Jokiel 60%
Jokiel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 40% vs Jokiel 60%
Jokiel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki +2 · Jokiel +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ogrocki) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jokiel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 1.67 / Jokiel 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ogrocki)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13105299
Ogrocki1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 57 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it74% 39 of 53
Jokiel2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog49% won 79 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back36% 25 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgrocki5wins
AwayJokiel5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrocki50%3 of 6
AwayJokiel50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki6Jokiel4n = 10Ogrocki took 6 of 10
S2Ogrocki3Jokiel7n = 10Jokiel took 7 of 10
S3Ogrocki7Jokiel3n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S4Ogrocki4Jokiel4n = 8split evenly
S5Ogrocki1Jokiel2n = 3Jokiel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgrockiJokielO − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.437.7+0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 453 vs 198 / 41946.6%47.3%211 / 453 vs 198 / 419Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiOgrocki 1.67/Jokiel 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 12:10T. Ogrocki—135891P. Jokiel—111111113
LAug 31 · 19:10T. Ogrocki—1281291P. Jokiel—101114113
WAug 30 · 16:38T. Ogrocki—1111113P. Jokiel—8780
LAug 30 · 16:15T. Ogrocki—9390P. Jokiel—1111113
WAug 29 · 10:40T. Ogrocki—881111113P. Jokiel—11117992
WAug 19 · 15:40T. Ogrocki—11711143P. Jokiel—6116121
WAug 15 · 11:45T. Ogrocki—41111113P. Jokiel—114891
WAug 9 · 06:40T. Ogrocki—11911113P. Jokiel—511381
LAug 7 · 14:15T. Ogrocki—11811762P. Jokiel—411711113
LAug 5 · 18:10T. Ogrocki—41111592P. Jokiel—117611113
T. Ogrocki10
WSep 9 · 16:10O. Skvor1.5361011101T. Ogrocki2.3811125123WSep 9 · 15:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113P. Jokiel2.10791191WSep 9 · 13:40K. Przeczek1.619111112102T. Ogrocki2.20118714123LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 12:10J. Patrik1.73111111113T. Ogrocki2.00135891LSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki2.2513135101O. Skvor1.57111511123LSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242WSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561
P. Jokiel10
WSep 9 · 15:40K. Przeczek1.57114341P. Jokiel2.2591111113LSep 9 · 15:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113P. Jokiel2.10791191WSep 9 · 14:10P. Jokiel2.208111111113O. Skvor1.6111571382LSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 4 · 21:15K. Przeczek1.50111111113P. Jokiel2.50713691WSep 4 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.25119311113V. Molin1.5751111972LSep 4 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.257690K. Przeczek1.571111113
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