TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13108690
Played Sep 10Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1153117111210411
Filip Theodor
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:16 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Filip Theodor below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 85 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 55.7%
85 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 0–2 Filip Theodor Tomas Ogrocki has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:16What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Theodor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1382 vs Theodor 1456
Theodor
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 80% vs Theodor 60%
Ogrocki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 40% vs Theodor 70%
Theodor
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki -1 · Theodor +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Theodor) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Theodor form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 2.75 / Theodor 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Theodor)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13108690
Ogrocki2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 59 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back27% 22 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Theodor1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite39% won 11 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeOgrocki0wins
AwayTheodor2wins
Theodor leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricOgrockiTheodorO − TBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match27.538.0−10.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiTheodorBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 456 vs 80 / 17346.7%46.2%213 / 456 vs 80 / 173Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TheodorOgrocki 2.75/Theodor 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Theodor · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Theodor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 31 · 17:40T. Ogrocki—7650F. Theodor—1111113
LAug 30 · 13:45T. Ogrocki—8811101F. Theodor—11119123
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 10 · 17:40V. Reska1.441113113T. Ogrocki2.6361180WSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki1.6712128113P. Jokiel2.1010101151WSep 9 · 16:10O. Skvor1.5361011101T. Ogrocki2.3811125123WSep 9 · 15:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113P. Jokiel2.10791191WSep 9 · 13:40K. Przeczek1.619111112102T. Ogrocki2.20118714123LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 12:10J. Patrik1.73111111113T. Ogrocki2.00135891LSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki2.2513135101O. Skvor1.57111511123LSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690
F. Theodor10
WSep 10 · 19:40V. Reska1.73105111162F. Theodor2.00121177113WSep 10 · 18:10F. Theodor1.5041511113J. Vanous2.501113931LSep 7 · 17:20F. Theodor2.0041111962K. Zeman1.73115811113LSep 7 · 16:15F. Theodor2.0081111452K. Zeman1.73119811113WSep 7 · 14:45D. Osvald1.57117271F. Theodor2.2591111113WSep 7 · 14:15V. Reska1.5784100F. Theodor2.251111123LSep 3 · 21:18F. Theodor1.677811111K. Przeczek2.1011119133WSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113WSep 3 · 19:15K. Przeczek1.806890F. Theodor1.911111113WSep 3 · 18:15F. Theodor1.911111113V. Molin1.805680
Upcoming Matches
T. Ogrocki
F. Theodor
Nothing scheduled
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