TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13108224
Played Sep 10Finished
Filip Theodor
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
4111513119113––
Jiri Vanous
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:13 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeFilip Theodor to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Theodor above · Jiri Vanous below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 77 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Filip Theodor at 57.8%
77 points played in total.
H2H Filip Theodor 3–1 Jiri Vanous Jiri Vanous has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Theodor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Theodor
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Theodor 1438 vs Vanous 1374
Theodor
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Theodor 40% vs Vanous 20%
Theodor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Theodor 70% vs Vanous 50%
Theodor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Theodor -2 · Vanous +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Theodor) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vanous form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTheodor 1.50 / Vanous 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Theodor)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13108224
Theodor1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite39% won 11 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Vanous2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 46 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back19% 11 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTheodor3wins
AwayVanous1wins
Theodor leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTheodor100%3 of 3
AwayVanousn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Theodor3Vanous1n = 4Theodor took 3 of 4
S2Theodor4Vanous0n = 4Theodor took 4 of 4
S3Theodor2Vanous2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricTheodorVanousT − VBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match36.530.2+6.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTheodorVanousBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 172 vs 127 / 29045.9%43.8%79 / 172 vs 127 / 290Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TheodorTheodor 1.50/Vanous 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Theodor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Theodor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 29 · 19:10F. Theodor—11147113J. Vanous—7121161
WJul 7 · 20:40F. Theodor—1113123J. Vanous—611100
LJul 7 · 19:45F. Theodor—911951J. Vanous—11411113
WDec 9 · 19:10F. Theodor—1111113J. Vanous—6690
F. Theodor10
LSep 7 · 17:20F. Theodor2.0041111962K. Zeman1.73115811113LSep 7 · 16:15F. Theodor2.0081111452K. Zeman1.73119811113WSep 7 · 14:45D. Osvald1.57117271F. Theodor2.2591111113WSep 7 · 14:15V. Reska1.5784100F. Theodor2.251111123LSep 3 · 21:18F. Theodor1.677811111K. Przeczek2.1011119133WSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113WSep 3 · 19:15K. Przeczek1.806890F. Theodor1.911111113WSep 3 · 18:15F. Theodor1.911111113V. Molin1.805680WAug 31 · 21:10F. Theodor1.7011611113P. Jokiel1.96911551WAug 31 · 19:40F. Theodor1.574111011113P. Jokiel2.2511912482
J. Vanous10
LSep 10 · 18:40V. Reska1.5011117113J. Vanous2.50881191WSep 9 · 20:45V. Molin1.5099111182J. Vanous2.50111197113LSep 9 · 20:10J. Vanous1.6761161152I. Jemelka2.10114115113LSep 9 · 18:40V. Molin1.5311126113J. Vanous2.389101141LSep 9 · 18:10O. Skvor1.6712114113J. Vanous2.101091191LSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 20:10J. Vanous1.61111111113R. Benesz2.20813561WSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113WSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113LSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123
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