TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091281
Played Sep 7Finished
Filip Theodor
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119118411511
Karel Zeman
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:28 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeKarel Zeman to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Theodor above · Karel Zeman below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 89 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Karel Zeman at 56.1%
89 points played in total.
H2H Filip Theodor 4–10 Karel Zeman Filip Theodor has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:28What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zeman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-10 in 14
Zeman
Correct
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Theodor 1486 vs Zeman 1408
Theodor
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Theodor 80% vs Zeman 60%
Theodor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Theodor 80% vs Zeman 50%
Theodor
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Theodor +2 · Zeman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zeman) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Theodor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTheodor 2.00 / Zeman 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Theodor)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13091281
Theodor2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 20 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back13% 3 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Zeman1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 64 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it73% 50 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTheodor3wins
AwayZeman7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderZeman leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTheodor60%3 of 5
AwayZeman100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Theodor5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S2Theodor5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S3Theodor7Zeman3n = 10Theodor took 7 of 10
S4Theodor2Zeman5n = 7Zeman took 5 of 7
S5Theodor1Zeman5n = 6Zeman took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTheodorZemanT − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.740.5−1.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTheodorZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 170 vs 169 / 30446.5%55.6%79 / 170 vs 169 / 304Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanTheodor 2.00/Zeman 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 18:40F. Theodor—931161K. Zeman—11113113
WAug 27 · 20:10F. Theodor—1111133K. Zeman—78110
LAug 9 · 20:45F. Theodor—8980K. Zeman—1111113
LAug 9 · 20:15F. Theodor—71111992K. Zeman—118211113
WJul 29 · 21:03F. Theodor—145911113K. Zeman—121111662
LJul 29 · 19:40F. Theodor—48111262K. Zeman—1111710113
LJul 7 · 17:45F. Theodor—11116392K. Zeman—961111113
LApr 20 · 18:45F. Theodor—81111622K. Zeman—117911113
WFeb 25 · 18:40F. Theodor—1112113K. Zeman—81050
LFeb 18 · 19:10F. Theodor—15611792K. Zeman—1311511113
F. Theodor10
LSep 7 · 17:20F. Theodor2.0041111962K. Zeman1.73115811113WSep 7 · 14:45D. Osvald1.57117271F. Theodor2.2591111113WSep 7 · 14:15V. Reska1.5784100F. Theodor2.251111123LSep 3 · 21:18F. Theodor1.677811111K. Przeczek2.1011119133WSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113WSep 3 · 19:15K. Przeczek1.806890F. Theodor1.911111113WSep 3 · 18:15F. Theodor1.911111113V. Molin1.805680WAug 31 · 21:10F. Theodor1.7011611113P. Jokiel1.96911551WAug 31 · 19:40F. Theodor1.574111011113P. Jokiel2.2511912482LAug 31 · 18:40F. Theodor2.00931161K. Zeman1.7311113113
K. Zeman10
WSep 7 · 17:20F. Theodor2.0041111962K. Zeman1.73115811113LSep 7 · 15:15K. Zeman2.0011316572V. Reska1.737111411113WSep 7 · 13:45D. Osvald2.0011561172K. Zeman1.73811119113WSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670LSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus2.0011124113K. Zeman1.736101181WSep 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.205650K. Zeman1.611111113WSep 1 · 18:10K. Zeman1.7381113123K. Przeczek2.0011711101LAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892LAug 31 · 20:10K. Zeman1.445880T. Ogrocki2.631111113WAug 31 · 18:40F. Theodor2.00931161K. Zeman1.7311113113
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