TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091361
Played Sep 7Finished
Karel Zeman
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1173111614511711
Vladislav Reska
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:47 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeVladislav Reska to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Zeman above · Vladislav Reska below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 96 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Vladislav Reska at 56.9%
96 points played in total.
H2H Karel Zeman 12–17 Vladislav Reska Karel Zeman has won 12 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:47What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Reska
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-17 in 29
Reska
Correct
gap of 5 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeman 1417 vs Reska 1488
Reska
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeman 80% vs Reska 60%
Zeman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeman 60% vs Reska 40%
Zeman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeman +2 · Reska -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Reska) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeman 2.00 / Reska 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Reska)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13091361
Zeman2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 29 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back38% 12 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Reska1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 75 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it81% 54 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeman5wins
AwayReska5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeman75%3 of 4
AwayReska66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeman4Reska6n = 10Reska took 6 of 10
S2Zeman7Reska3n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S3Zeman7Reska3n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S4Zeman2Reska5n = 7Reska took 5 of 7
S5Zeman1Reska2n = 3Reska took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZemanReskaZ − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.537.0−0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZemanReskaBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 303 vs 243 / 48155.8%50.5%169 / 303 vs 243 / 481Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReskaZeman 2.00/Reska 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Reska · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Reska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 18:45K. Zeman—101111542V. Reska—125711113
LAug 27 · 18:40K. Zeman—8111281V. Reska—11714113
LAug 25 · 21:25K. Zeman—11114362V. Reska—871111113
WAug 25 · 19:45K. Zeman—611118113V. Reska—11731192
WAug 21 · 18:45K. Zeman—11511113V. Reska—711891
WAug 17 · 19:45K. Zeman—71111113V. Reska—118591
LAug 9 · 18:15K. Zeman—9612101V. Reska—111110123
WJul 16 · 21:04K. Zeman—1113113V. Reska—51190
LJul 16 · 18:40K. Zeman—7570V. Reska—1111113
WJul 10 · 21:15K. Zeman—1211113V. Reska—10930
K. Zeman10
WSep 7 · 16:15F. Theodor2.0081111452K. Zeman1.73119811113WSep 7 · 13:45D. Osvald2.0011561172K. Zeman1.73811119113WSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670LSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus2.0011124113K. Zeman1.736101181WSep 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.205650K. Zeman1.611111113WSep 1 · 18:10K. Zeman1.7381113123K. Przeczek2.0011711101LAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892LAug 31 · 20:10K. Zeman1.445880T. Ogrocki2.631111113WAug 31 · 18:40F. Theodor2.00931161K. Zeman1.7311113113LAug 31 · 18:10P. Jokiel1.8371411113K. Zeman1.831112561
V. Reska10
LSep 7 · 16:49V. Reska1.536940D. Osvald2.381111113WSep 7 · 15:45D. Osvald1.73111080V. Reska2.001312113LSep 7 · 14:15V. Reska1.5784100F. Theodor2.251111123WSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 11:40V. Reska1.61871181O. Skvor2.2011116113WSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.83111178113J. Patrik1.8379111162WSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 4 · 16:35A. Kanak1.801211113V. Reska1.9110450LSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780
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