TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124771
Played Sep 13Finished
Ales Drozd
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911118116611911
Patrik Jokiel
Away
2.15
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:39 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
93 points played in total.
Set by set
911118116611911
H2H Ales Drozd 10–9 Patrik Jokiel Patrik Jokiel has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Drozd beat Jokiel 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:39What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (57%)
Drozd
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1481 vs Jokiel 1342
Drozd
Wrong
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 80% vs Jokiel 20%
Drozd
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 60% vs Jokiel 30%
Drozd
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd -1 · Jokiel -4
Jokiel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Drozd) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jokiel form (20%) is below what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 1.62 / Jokiel 2.15
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Drozd)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13124771
Drozd1.62
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 41 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it70% 33 of 47
Jokiel2.15
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 71 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back39% 25 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDrozd5wins
AwayJokiel5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrozd66.7%4 of 6
AwayJokiel75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd6Jokiel4n = 10Drozd took 6 of 10
S2Drozd4Jokiel6n = 10Jokiel took 6 of 10
S3Drozd5Jokiel5n = 10split evenly
S4Drozd4Jokiel5n = 9Jokiel took 5 of 9
S5Drozd4Jokiel3n = 7Drozd took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDrozdJokielD − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.945.5+0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 262 vs 201 / 42950.8%46.9%133 / 262 vs 201 / 429Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdDrozd 1.62/Jokiel 2.15
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.2%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 12:40A. Drozd4691111692P. Jokiel47118611113
WSep 13 · 09:45A. Drozd551711610113P. Jokiel54158111282
LAug 13 · 14:45A. Drozd49871113102P. Jokiel521111711123
WJul 25 · 14:15A. Drozd50118911113P. Jokiel4371111592
LJul 23 · 16:34A. Drozd4111811111P. Jokiel4361113133
WJul 23 · 16:10A. Drozd331111113P. Jokiel248880
WJul 15 · 08:55A. Drozd541014811113P. Jokiel51121211972
LJul 15 · 07:15A. Drozd35119961P. Jokiel4291111113
LJul 6 · 09:45A. Drozd47810111172P. Jokiel50111279113
WJun 15 · 14:45A. Drozd49115129123P. Jokiel497111011102
A. Drozd10
LSep 13 · 11:45A. Drozd1.574860O. Kus2.251111103WSep 13 · 10:45A. Drozd1.50118114123O. Skvor2.50811811102WSep 13 · 09:45A. Drozd1.831711610113P. Jokiel1.83158111282WSep 11 · 17:10A. Drozd2.051113113K. Baros1.6891160WSep 11 · 16:10A. Drozd1.911113113O. Skvor1.8061190LSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123LAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd1.50114771O. Kus2.5061111113WAug 25 · 08:15O. Kus2.256770A. Drozd1.571111113LAug 25 · 07:15A. Drozd1.807690L. Kantor1.911111113
P. Jokiel10
LSep 13 · 12:15O. Skvor1.831211113P. Jokiel1.8310460LSep 13 · 11:15P. Jokiel1.91119781O. Kus1.8091111113LSep 13 · 09:45A. Drozd1.831711610113P. Jokiel1.83158111282LSep 11 · 21:25P. Jokiel1.5861040I. Jemelka2.131112113WSep 11 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.001119113O. Skvor1.7371790LSep 11 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.10813891T. Ogrocki1.67111111113WSep 11 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.5713711113I. Jemelka2.251111671LSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki1.6712128113P. Jokiel2.1010101151WSep 9 · 15:40K. Przeczek1.57114341P. Jokiel2.2591111113LSep 9 · 15:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113P. Jokiel2.10791191
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