TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13115945
Played Sep 11Finished
Ales Drozd
Home
2.05
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191311116––––
Karel Baros
Away
1.68
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Drozd above · Karel Baros below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 61 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Ales Drozd at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Ales Drozd 1–3 Karel Baros Ales Drozd has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Baros beat Drozd 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:35What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (55%)
Baros
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Baros
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1467 vs Baros 1524
Baros
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 60% vs Baros 40%
Drozd
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 40% vs Baros 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd +1 · Baros -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Baros) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 2.05 / Baros 1.68
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Baros)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13115945
Drozd2.05
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 30 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Baros1.68
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 62 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it81% 43 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDrozd1wins
AwayBaros3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderBaros leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrozdn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBaros66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd1Baros3n = 4Baros took 3 of 4
S2Drozd2Baros2n = 4split evenly
S3Drozd2Baros2n = 4split evenly
S4Drozd1Baros3n = 4Baros took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricDrozdBarosD − BBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match41.243.2−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 257 vs 146 / 26750.6%54.7%130 / 257 vs 146 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BarosDrozd 2.05/Baros 1.68
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Baros · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Drozd won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 11 · 14:40A. Drozd—11713852K. Baros—5111111113
LAug 19 · 13:45A. Drozd—511691K. Baros—11311113
WMar 20 · 16:10A. Drozd—911812113K. Baros—117111052
LJan 31 · 15:45A. Drozd—6131191K. Baros—11157113
A. Drozd10
WSep 11 · 16:10A. Drozd1.911113113O. Skvor1.8061190LSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123LAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd1.50114771O. Kus2.5061111113WAug 25 · 08:15O. Kus2.256770A. Drozd1.571111113LAug 25 · 07:15A. Drozd1.807690L. Kantor1.911111113LAug 25 · 05:45P. Vinansky1.36111011123A. Drozd3.008123101LAug 24 · 12:45T. Lysek1.8011811113A. Drozd1.91911491WAug 24 · 12:15O. Kus2.2591170A. Drozd1.571113113LAug 24 · 11:15A. Drozd2.0011661582T. Lysek1.739111113113
K. Baros10
LSep 11 · 15:40K. Baros1.7311178482J. Volny2.005151111113WSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 13:40K. Baros1.8011611113O. Skvor1.91711661LSep 8 · 17:00K. Baros1.909720D. Osvald1.801111113LSep 8 · 15:45A. Kanak1.5051311113K. Baros2.501111741WSep 8 · 15:15D. Osvald1.577111051K. Baros2.2511512113LSep 8 · 14:15K. Baros1.8349100V. Konvicka1.831111123WSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113WSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780LSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892
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