TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114117
Played Sep 11Finished
Ales Drozd
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161311119––––
Ondrej Skvor
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Drozd above · Ondrej Skvor below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 61 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ondrej Skvor at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Ales Drozd 6–3 Ondrej Skvor Ondrej Skvor has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:26What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skvor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Drozd
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1453 vs Skvor 1470
Skvor
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 40% vs Skvor 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 30% vs Skvor 50%
Skvor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd -1 · Skvor -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skvor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 1.91 / Skvor 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skvor)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13114117
Drozd1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 30 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Skvor1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 43 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it66% 29 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeDrozd6wins
AwaySkvor3wins
3 of 9 to a deciderDrozd leads 6–3, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrozd100%5 of 5
AwaySkvor75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd5Skvor4n = 9Drozd took 5 of 9
S2Drozd5Skvor4n = 9Drozd took 5 of 9
S3Drozd5Skvor4n = 9Drozd took 5 of 9
S4Drozd3Skvor5n = 8Skvor took 5 of 8
S5Drozd3Skvor0n = 3Drozd took 3 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricDrozdSkvorD − SBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match38.939.6−0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdSkvorBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 256 vs 71 / 13950.4%51.1%129 / 256 vs 71 / 139Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorDrozd 1.91/Skvor 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Drozd won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 23 · 06:40A. Drozd—116112113O. Skvor—91191172
WAug 1 · 10:10A. Drozd—111711113O. Skvor—91111962
LAug 1 · 08:10A. Drozd—6111141O. Skvor—11913113
WJul 25 · 16:45A. Drozd—146118113O. Skvor—121141162
WJul 25 · 15:15A. Drozd—91411113O. Skvor—1112781
LJul 4 · 17:08A. Drozd—761171O. Skvor—11118113
WJul 4 · 15:40A. Drozd—13116113O. Skvor—1181171
WJun 9 · 07:15A. Drozd—1111113O. Skvor—9920
LMay 3 · 07:10A. Drozd—5111191O. Skvor—11413113
A. Drozd10
LSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123LAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd1.50114771O. Kus2.5061111113WAug 25 · 08:15O. Kus2.256770A. Drozd1.571111113LAug 25 · 07:15A. Drozd1.807690L. Kantor1.911111113LAug 25 · 05:45P. Vinansky1.36111011123A. Drozd3.008123101LAug 24 · 12:45T. Lysek1.8011811113A. Drozd1.91911491WAug 24 · 12:15O. Kus2.2591170A. Drozd1.571113113LAug 24 · 11:15A. Drozd2.0011661582T. Lysek1.739111113113LAug 24 · 09:45P. Vinansky1.501112113A. Drozd2.5071090
O. Skvor10
LSep 11 · 16:40J. Volny1.671111713113O. Skvor2.1085111572LSep 11 · 15:10O. Skvor2.00512101182J. Volny1.731110126113LSep 11 · 13:40K. Baros1.8011611113O. Skvor1.91711661WSep 9 · 21:15O. Skvor1.70611117123I. Jemelka1.96115811102WSep 9 · 19:40V. Molin1.832650O. Skvor1.831111113LSep 9 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.2011126113O. Skvor1.615101151WSep 9 · 18:10O. Skvor1.6712114113J. Vanous2.101091191WSep 9 · 16:44O. Skvor1.731112113K. Przeczek2.0071070LSep 9 · 16:10O. Skvor1.5361011101T. Ogrocki2.3811125123WSep 9 · 14:40K. Przeczek1.8311119682O. Skvor1.83871111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.