TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13104170
Played Sep 9Finished
Ivan Jemelka
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151210611115––
Ondrej Skvor
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:09 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Jemelka above · Ondrej Skvor below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 71 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Ondrej Skvor at 57.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Jemelka 1–2 Ondrej Skvor Ivan Jemelka has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skvor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jemelka 1388 vs Skvor 1471
Skvor
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jemelka 60% vs Skvor 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jemelka 50% vs Skvor 70%
Skvor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jemelka -1 · Skvor +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Skvor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jemelka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJemelka 2.20 / Skvor 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Skvor)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13104170
Jemelka2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog59% won 24 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Skvor1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 40 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it66% 27 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeJemelka1wins
AwaySkvor2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSkvor leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jemelka1Skvor2n = 3Skvor took 2 of 3
S2Jemelka2Skvor1n = 3Jemelka took 2 of 3
S3Jemelka1Skvor2n = 3Skvor took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricJemelkaSkvorJ − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match34.738.3−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJemelkaSkvorBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 105 vs 69 / 13446.7%51.5%49 / 105 vs 69 / 134Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorJemelka 2.20/Skvor 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jemelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 11 · 13:40I. Jemelka—61111113O. Skvor—113881
LJun 20 · 12:35I. Jemelka—121110552O. Skvor—1081211113
LJun 20 · 11:10I. Jemelka—9760O. Skvor—1111113
I. Jemelka10
LSep 9 · 17:40V. Molin1.53111176123I. Jemelka2.38591111102WSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113WSep 5 · 17:40I. Jemelka2.101812113R. Benesz1.67161070LSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113LSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561LSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152WSep 3 · 18:10I. Jemelka2.101011712113O. Vaclahovsky1.67126111052WAug 26 · 09:13J. Sevecek1.50612451I. Jemelka2.50111011113
O. Skvor10
WSep 9 · 19:40V. Molin1.832650O. Skvor1.831111113WSep 9 · 18:10O. Skvor1.6712114113J. Vanous2.101091191WSep 9 · 16:44O. Skvor1.731112113K. Przeczek2.0071070LSep 9 · 16:10O. Skvor1.5361011101T. Ogrocki2.3811125123WSep 9 · 14:40K. Przeczek1.8311119682O. Skvor1.83871111113LSep 9 · 14:10P. Jokiel2.208111111113O. Skvor1.6111571382WSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek2.2042100O. Skvor1.611111123WSep 5 · 15:10J. Sindler2.508560O. Skvor1.501111113LSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113
Upcoming Matches
I. Jemelka
O. Skvor
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