TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106236
Played Sep 9Finished
Ondrej Skvor
Home
1.70
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111151187111210
Ivan Jemelka
Away
1.96
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Jemelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Skvor above · Ivan Jemelka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 92 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Ivan Jemelka at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Skvor 2–2 Ivan Jemelka Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Jemelka beat Skvor 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:46What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Skvor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvor 1469 vs Jemelka 1412
Skvor
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvor 60% vs Jemelka 80%
Jemelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvor 70% vs Jemelka 50%
Skvor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvor +1 · Jemelka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skvor) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jemelka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvor 1.70 / Jemelka 1.96
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skvor)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13106236
Skvor1.70
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 40 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it66% 27 of 41
Jemelka1.96
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog59% won 24 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSkvor2wins
AwayJemelka2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvor2Jemelka2n = 4split evenly
S2Skvor1Jemelka3n = 4Jemelka took 3 of 4
S3Skvor3Jemelka1n = 4Skvor took 3 of 4
S4Skvor1Jemelka2n = 3Jemelka took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSkvorJemelkaS − JBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match36.536.0+0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvorJemelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 136 vs 51 / 10751.5%47.7%70 / 136 vs 51 / 107Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorSkvor 1.70/Jemelka 1.96
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skvor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 9 · 19:10O. Skvor—5101151I. Jemelka—11126113
LJul 11 · 13:40O. Skvor—113881I. Jemelka—61111113
WJun 20 · 12:35O. Skvor—1081211113I. Jemelka—121110552
WJun 20 · 11:10O. Skvor—1111113I. Jemelka—9760
O. Skvor10
WSep 9 · 19:40V. Molin1.832650O. Skvor1.831111113LSep 9 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.2011126113O. Skvor1.615101151WSep 9 · 18:10O. Skvor1.6712114113J. Vanous2.101091191WSep 9 · 16:44O. Skvor1.731112113K. Przeczek2.0071070LSep 9 · 16:10O. Skvor1.5361011101T. Ogrocki2.3811125123WSep 9 · 14:40K. Przeczek1.8311119682O. Skvor1.83871111113LSep 9 · 14:10P. Jokiel2.208111111113O. Skvor1.6111571382WSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek2.2042100O. Skvor1.611111123WSep 5 · 15:10J. Sindler2.508560O. Skvor1.501111113
I. Jemelka10
WSep 9 · 20:10J. Vanous1.6761161152I. Jemelka2.10114115113WSep 9 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.2011126113O. Skvor1.615101151LSep 9 · 17:40V. Molin1.53111176123I. Jemelka2.38591111102WSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113WSep 5 · 17:40I. Jemelka2.101812113R. Benesz1.67161070LSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113LSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561LSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152
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