TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114153
Played Sep 11Finished
Karel Baros
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1151715811411811
Jakub Volny
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Baros to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarel Baros above · Jakub Volny below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 101 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Karel Baros at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Karel Baros 6–2 Jakub Volny Jakub Volny has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Baros
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Baros
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1534 vs Volny 1533
Baros
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 60% vs Volny 80%
Volny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 60% vs Volny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros +2 · Volny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baros)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 1.73 / Volny 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Baros)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13114153
Baros1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 62 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it81% 43 of 53
Volny2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 47 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back21% 12 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBaros6wins
AwayVolny2wins
5 of 8 to a deciderBaros leads 6–2, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaros60%3 of 5
AwayVolny0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros5Volny3n = 8Baros took 5 of 8
S2Baros4Volny4n = 8split evenly
S3Baros6Volny2n = 8Baros took 6 of 8
S4Baros4Volny3n = 7Baros took 4 of 7
S5Baros3Volny2n = 5Baros took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricBarosVolnyB − VBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match43.138.0+5.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosVolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 266 vs 169 / 35054.9%48.3%146 / 266 vs 169 / 350Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BarosBaros 1.73/Volny 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baros · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Volny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 4 · 17:05K. Baros—119117113J. Volny—41151192
WSep 4 · 14:10K. Baros—81114113J. Volny—1181241
WJul 28 · 16:45K. Baros—1116113J. Volny—91440
WJul 28 · 13:45K. Baros—612311123J. Volny—1110113102
LJun 5 · 16:45K. Baros—11711952J. Volny—511511113
LJun 5 · 15:15K. Baros—11117672J. Volny—671111113
WMar 15 · 07:15K. Baros—771111113J. Volny—11116562
WMar 1 · 08:40K. Baros—11511113J. Volny—811461
K. Baros10
WSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 13:40K. Baros1.8011611113O. Skvor1.91711661LSep 8 · 17:00K. Baros1.909720D. Osvald1.801111113LSep 8 · 15:45A. Kanak1.5051311113K. Baros2.501111741WSep 8 · 15:15D. Osvald1.577111051K. Baros2.2511512113LSep 8 · 14:15K. Baros1.8349100V. Konvicka1.831111123WSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113WSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780LSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892WSep 4 · 14:10J. Volny1.911181241K. Baros1.8081114113
J. Volny10
WSep 11 · 15:10O. Skvor2.00512101182J. Volny1.731110126113LSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123WSep 5 · 17:13J. Volny2.2071A. Kanak1.6140WSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981WSep 5 · 14:45L. Kantor1.679990J. Volny2.101111113LSep 5 · 14:15A. Kanak1.7314715113J. Volny2.0012111381LSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113WSep 4 · 15:40A. Kanak1.676980J. Volny2.101111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Reska2.1011115672J. Volny1.67981111113LSep 4 · 14:10J. Volny1.911181241K. Baros1.8081114113
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