TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13122336
Played Sep 13Finished
Ales Drozd
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
17151186111012118
Patrik Jokiel
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Drozd above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 109 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Ales Drozd at 54.0%
109 points played in total.
H2H Ales Drozd 9–8 Patrik Jokiel Patrik Jokiel has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:42What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jokiel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1483 vs Jokiel 1373
Drozd
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 60% vs Jokiel 40%
Drozd
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 50% vs Jokiel 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd +2 · Jokiel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Drozd)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jokiel form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 1.83 / Jokiel 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Drozd)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13122336
Drozd1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Jokiel1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDrozd5wins
AwayJokiel5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrozd57.1%4 of 7
AwayJokiel66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd7Jokiel3n = 10Drozd took 7 of 10
S2Drozd3Jokiel7n = 10Jokiel took 7 of 10
S3Drozd4Jokiel6n = 10Jokiel took 6 of 10
S4Drozd5Jokiel4n = 9Drozd took 5 of 9
S5Drozd4Jokiel3n = 7Drozd took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDrozdJokielD − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match45.445.3+0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 258 vs 200 / 42550.8%47.1%131 / 258 vs 200 / 425Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdDrozd 1.83/Jokiel 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Drozd won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 14:45A. Drozd49871113102P. Jokiel521111711123
WJul 25 · 14:15A. Drozd50118911113P. Jokiel4371111592
LJul 23 · 16:34A. Drozd4111811111P. Jokiel4361113133
WJul 23 · 16:10A. Drozd331111113P. Jokiel248880
WJul 15 · 08:55A. Drozd541014811113P. Jokiel51121211972
LJul 15 · 07:15A. Drozd35119961P. Jokiel4291111113
LJul 6 · 09:45A. Drozd47810111172P. Jokiel50111279113
WJun 15 · 14:45A. Drozd49115129123P. Jokiel497111011102
LMay 31 · 14:10A. Drozd50111189112P. Jokiel51791111133
WMay 12 · 08:15A. Drozd46117611113P. Jokiel4881111992
A. Drozd10
WSep 13 · 10:45A. Drozd1.50118114123O. Skvor2.50811811102WSep 11 · 17:10A. Drozd2.051113113K. Baros1.6891160WSep 11 · 16:10A. Drozd1.911113113O. Skvor1.8061190LSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123LAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd1.50114771O. Kus2.5061111113WAug 25 · 08:15O. Kus2.256770A. Drozd1.571111113LAug 25 · 07:15A. Drozd1.807690L. Kantor1.911111113LAug 25 · 05:45P. Vinansky1.36111011123A. Drozd3.008123101LAug 24 · 12:45T. Lysek1.8011811113A. Drozd1.91911491
P. Jokiel10
LSep 11 · 21:25P. Jokiel1.5861040I. Jemelka2.131112113WSep 11 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.001119113O. Skvor1.7371790LSep 11 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.10813891T. Ogrocki1.67111111113WSep 11 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.5713711113I. Jemelka2.251111671LSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki1.6712128113P. Jokiel2.1010101151WSep 9 · 15:40K. Przeczek1.57114341P. Jokiel2.2591111113LSep 9 · 15:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113P. Jokiel2.10791191WSep 9 · 14:10P. Jokiel2.208111111113O. Skvor1.6111571382LSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891
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