TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114130
Played Sep 11Finished
Patrik Jokiel
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111311811911––
Tomas Ogrocki
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:25 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 82 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 54.8%
82 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 12–24 Tomas Ogrocki Patrik Jokiel has won 12 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:25What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Ogrocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-24 in 36
Ogrocki
Correct
gap of 12 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1379 vs Ogrocki 1336
Jokiel
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 60% vs Ogrocki 20%
Jokiel
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 50% vs Ogrocki 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel +1 · Ogrocki -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Ogrocki)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 2.10 / Ogrocki 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Ogrocki)-1.0pp
TT Cup · #13114130
Jokiel2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog49% won 81 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back37% 27 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Ogrocki1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 59 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it73% 41 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJokiel3wins
AwayOgrocki7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOgrocki leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokiel33.3%1 of 3
AwayOgrocki71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel3Ogrocki7n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S2Jokiel6Ogrocki4n = 10Jokiel took 6 of 10
S3Jokiel5Ogrocki5n = 10split evenly
S4Jokiel2Ogrocki6n = 8Ogrocki took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJokielOgrockiJ − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.938.3−2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 422 vs 214 / 46047.2%46.5%199 / 422 vs 214 / 460Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiJokiel 2.10/Ogrocki 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 17:15P. Jokiel—10101151T. Ogrocki—12128113
LSep 9 · 15:10P. Jokiel—791191T. Ogrocki—11116113
WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel—111111113T. Ogrocki—135891
WAug 31 · 19:10P. Jokiel—101114113T. Ogrocki—1281291
LAug 30 · 16:38P. Jokiel—8780T. Ogrocki—1111113
WAug 30 · 16:15P. Jokiel—1111113T. Ogrocki—9390
LAug 29 · 10:40P. Jokiel—11117992T. Ogrocki—881111113
LAug 19 · 15:40P. Jokiel—6116121T. Ogrocki—11711143
LAug 15 · 11:45P. Jokiel—114891T. Ogrocki—41111113
LAug 9 · 06:40P. Jokiel—511381T. Ogrocki—11911113
P. Jokiel10
WSep 11 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.5713711113I. Jemelka2.251111671LSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki1.6712128113P. Jokiel2.1010101151WSep 9 · 15:40K. Przeczek1.57114341P. Jokiel2.2591111113LSep 9 · 15:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113P. Jokiel2.10791191WSep 9 · 14:10P. Jokiel2.208111111113O. Skvor1.6111571382LSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 4 · 21:15K. Przeczek1.50111111113P. Jokiel2.50713691
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 11 · 18:10O. Skvor2.1071111113T. Ogrocki1.67116971WSep 10 · 20:44J. Vanous1.80851191T. Ogrocki1.9111115113LSep 10 · 20:10J. Vanous2.00831111113T. Ogrocki1.7311114942LSep 10 · 19:10T. Ogrocki2.7511371242F. Theodor1.405111110113LSep 10 · 17:40V. Reska1.441113113T. Ogrocki2.6361180WSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki1.6712128113P. Jokiel2.1010101151WSep 9 · 16:10O. Skvor1.5361011101T. Ogrocki2.3811125123WSep 9 · 15:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113P. Jokiel2.10791191WSep 9 · 13:40K. Przeczek1.619111112102T. Ogrocki2.20118714123LSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891
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