TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13113944
Played Sep 11Finished
Ondrej Skvor
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711116119117––
Tomas Ogrocki
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:43 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Skvor above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Ondrej Skvor at 59.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Skvor 7–5 Tomas Ogrocki Tomas Ogrocki has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:43What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Ogrocki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Skvor
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvor 1448 vs Ogrocki 1345
Skvor
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvor 20% vs Ogrocki 40%
Ogrocki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvor 40% vs Ogrocki 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvor -4 · Ogrocki +1
Skvor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ogrocki) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvor 2.10 / Ogrocki 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skvor)+1.8pp
TT Cup · #13113944
Skvor2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog55% won 18 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back19% 3 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Ogrocki1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 59 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it73% 41 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvor6wins
AwayOgrocki4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkvor leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvor60%3 of 5
AwayOgrocki40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvor5Ogrocki5n = 10split evenly
S2Skvor3Ogrocki7n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S3Skvor7Ogrocki3n = 10Skvor took 7 of 10
S4Skvor5Ogrocki4n = 9Skvor took 5 of 9
S5Skvor2Ogrocki1n = 3Skvor took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvorOgrockiS − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.839.80.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvorOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 141 vs 214 / 45950.4%46.6%71 / 141 vs 214 / 459Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiSkvor 2.10/Ogrocki 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skvor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 16:10O. Skvor—61011101T. Ogrocki—11125123
WSep 5 · 11:10O. Skvor—111511123T. Ogrocki—13135101
WAug 30 · 15:15O. Skvor—114311113T. Ogrocki—51111982
WAug 15 · 13:20O. Skvor—313119113T. Ogrocki—111161192
WAug 15 · 10:45O. Skvor—11911113T. Ogrocki—711971
LAug 7 · 16:45O. Skvor—111011652T. Ogrocki—612911113
WAug 7 · 16:15O. Skvor—14911113T. Ogrocki—1211491
WJul 25 · 18:45O. Skvor—91111113T. Ogrocki—113881
LMay 15 · 17:20O. Skvor—6590T. Ogrocki—1111113
LMay 15 · 14:15O. Skvor—1157101T. Ogrocki—91111123
O. Skvor10
LSep 11 · 16:40J. Volny1.671111713113O. Skvor2.1085111572LSep 11 · 16:10A. Drozd1.911113113O. Skvor1.8061190LSep 11 · 15:10O. Skvor2.00512101182J. Volny1.731110126113LSep 11 · 13:40K. Baros1.8011611113O. Skvor1.91711661WSep 9 · 21:15O. Skvor1.70611117123I. Jemelka1.96115811102WSep 9 · 19:40V. Molin1.832650O. Skvor1.831111113LSep 9 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.2011126113O. Skvor1.615101151WSep 9 · 18:10O. Skvor1.6712114113J. Vanous2.101091191WSep 9 · 16:44O. Skvor1.731112113K. Przeczek2.0071070LSep 9 · 16:10O. Skvor1.5361011101T. Ogrocki2.3811125123
T. Ogrocki10
WSep 11 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.10813891T. Ogrocki1.67111111113WSep 10 · 20:44J. Vanous1.80851191T. Ogrocki1.9111115113LSep 10 · 20:10J. Vanous2.00831111113T. Ogrocki1.7311114942LSep 10 · 19:10T. Ogrocki2.7511371242F. Theodor1.405111110113LSep 10 · 17:40V. Reska1.441113113T. Ogrocki2.6361180WSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki1.6712128113P. Jokiel2.1010101151WSep 9 · 16:10O. Skvor1.5361011101T. Ogrocki2.3811125123WSep 9 · 15:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113P. Jokiel2.10791191WSep 9 · 13:40K. Przeczek1.619111112102T. Ogrocki2.20118714123LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121
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