TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13113465
Played Sep 11Finished
Patrik Jokiel
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311711116117––
Ivan Jemelka
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:33 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timePatrik Jokiel to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Ivan Jemelka below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 77 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Patrik Jokiel at 62.2%
77 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 6–1 Ivan Jemelka Ivan Jemelka has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:33What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jokiel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Jokiel
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1367 vs Jemelka 1403
Jemelka
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 40% vs Jemelka 60%
Jemelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 50% vs Jemelka 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel -1 · Jemelka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jokiel) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jemelka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 1.57 / Jemelka 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Jokiel)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13113465
Jokiel1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite53% won 41 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it71% 24 of 34
Jemelka2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog58% won 26 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back26% 5 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJokiel6wins
AwayJemelka1wins
1 of 7 to a deciderJokiel leads 6–1, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokiel100%5 of 5
AwayJemelkan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel5Jemelka2n = 7Jokiel took 5 of 7
S2Jokiel7Jemelka0n = 7Jokiel took 7 of 7
S3Jokiel4Jemelka3n = 7Jokiel took 4 of 7
S4Jokiel2Jemelka1n = 3Jokiel took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home457%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricJokielJemelkaJokiel − JemelkaBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match37.728.9+8.8per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielJemelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 421 vs 51 / 10847%47.2%198 / 421 vs 51 / 108Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JokielJokiel 1.57/Jemelka 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Jokiel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 3 · 13:45P. Jokiel—13119113I. Jemelka—1171181
WJun 29 · 19:10P. Jokiel—1211113I. Jemelka—10590
WJun 26 · 08:15P. Jokiel—1111113I. Jemelka—5480
WJun 20 · 12:10P. Jokiel—1111113I. Jemelka—2460
WJun 18 · 16:50P. Jokiel—1011511113I. Jemelka—12811682
LJun 18 · 16:15P. Jokiel—1211761I. Jemelka—14911113
WJun 15 · 16:15P. Jokiel—1111143I. Jemelka—55120
P. Jokiel10
LSep 11 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.10813891T. Ogrocki1.67111111113LSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki1.6712128113P. Jokiel2.1010101151WSep 9 · 15:40K. Przeczek1.57114341P. Jokiel2.2591111113LSep 9 · 15:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113P. Jokiel2.10791191WSep 9 · 14:10P. Jokiel2.208111111113O. Skvor1.6111571382LSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 4 · 21:15K. Przeczek1.50111111113P. Jokiel2.50713691
I. Jemelka10
LSep 9 · 21:15O. Skvor1.70611117123I. Jemelka1.96115811102WSep 9 · 20:10J. Vanous1.6761161152I. Jemelka2.10114115113WSep 9 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.2011126113O. Skvor1.615101151LSep 9 · 17:40V. Molin1.53111176123I. Jemelka2.38591111102WSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113WSep 5 · 17:40I. Jemelka2.101812113R. Benesz1.67161070LSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113LSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561
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