TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114142
Played Sep 11Finished
Patrik Jokiel
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171917119––––
Ondrej Skvor
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:24 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Ondrej Skvor below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 19-17
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 74 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ondrej Skvor at 57.6%
74 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 10–6 Ondrej Skvor Ondrej Skvor has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:24What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skvor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Jokiel
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1356 vs Skvor 1451
Skvor
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 40% vs Skvor 20%
Jokiel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 50% vs Skvor 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel -1 · Skvor -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Skvor) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 2.00 / Skvor 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Skvor)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #13114142
Jokiel2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog49% won 81 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back37% 27 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Skvor1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 43 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it66% 29 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJokiel6wins
AwaySkvor4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJokiel leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokiel80%4 of 5
AwaySkvor60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel5Skvor5n = 10split evenly
S2Jokiel6Skvor4n = 10Jokiel took 6 of 10
S3Jokiel5Skvor5n = 10split evenly
S4Jokiel3Skvor3n = 6split evenly
S5Jokiel2Skvor1n = 3Jokiel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJokielSkvorJ − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.135.1+3.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielSkvorBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 423 vs 72 / 14347%50.4%199 / 423 vs 72 / 143Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorJokiel 2.00/Skvor 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 14:10P. Jokiel—8111111113O. Skvor—11571382
LSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel—8380O. Skvor—1111113
WSep 5 · 10:10P. Jokiel—111110113O. Skvor—661281
LAug 30 · 14:15P. Jokiel—1191071O. Skvor—91112113
LAug 15 · 10:15P. Jokiel—108111172O. Skvor—121123113
LAug 15 · 08:50P. Jokiel—82100O. Skvor—1111123
WAug 15 · 06:45P. Jokiel—814119113O. Skvor—111251192
WAug 7 · 15:15P. Jokiel—11117113O. Skvor—591191
WJul 25 · 16:15P. Jokiel—1115113O. Skvor—51340
WJul 18 · 10:40P. Jokiel—1111113O. Skvor—7690
P. Jokiel10
LSep 11 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.10813891T. Ogrocki1.67111111113WSep 11 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.5713711113I. Jemelka2.251111671LSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki1.6712128113P. Jokiel2.1010101151WSep 9 · 15:40K. Przeczek1.57114341P. Jokiel2.2591111113LSep 9 · 15:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113P. Jokiel2.10791191WSep 9 · 14:10P. Jokiel2.208111111113O. Skvor1.6111571382LSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113
O. Skvor10
LSep 11 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.1011119113O. Skvor1.67781171WSep 11 · 18:10O. Skvor2.1071111113T. Ogrocki1.67116971LSep 11 · 16:40J. Volny1.671111713113O. Skvor2.1085111572LSep 11 · 16:10A. Drozd1.911113113O. Skvor1.8061190LSep 11 · 15:10O. Skvor2.00512101182J. Volny1.731110126113LSep 11 · 13:40K. Baros1.8011611113O. Skvor1.91711661WSep 9 · 21:15O. Skvor1.70611117123I. Jemelka1.96115811102LSep 9 · 14:10P. Jokiel2.208111111113O. Skvor1.6111571382WSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113LSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113
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