TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13123212
Played Sep 13Finished
Ales Drozd
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811610––––
Ondrej Kus
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:13 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Drozd above · Ondrej Kus below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-10
Point 50 set 3, 6-10 — our read held Ales Drozd at 59.7%
50 points played in total.
H2H Ales Drozd 7–7 Ondrej Kus Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Drozd
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1508 vs Kus 1353
Drozd
Wrong
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 80% vs Kus 40%
Drozd
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 60% vs Kus 20%
Drozd
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd +4 · Kus +1
Drozd
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Drozd) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Drozd form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 1.57 / Kus 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Drozd)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13123212
Drozd1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 41 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it70% 33 of 47
Kus2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 65 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back25% 18 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDrozd5wins
AwayKus5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrozd80%4 of 5
AwayKus80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd5Kus5n = 10split evenly
S2Drozd6Kus4n = 10Drozd took 6 of 10
S3Drozd6Kus4n = 10Drozd took 6 of 10
S4Drozd1Kus2n = 3Kus took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDrozdKusD − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.731.70.0per matchSweeps43+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdKusBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 260 vs 257 / 51851.2%49.6%133 / 260 vs 257 / 518Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdDrozd 1.57/Kus 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 08:15A. Drozd331111113O. Kus206770
WAug 24 · 12:15A. Drozd351113113O. Kus2791170
WAug 16 · 16:10A. Drozd4291111113O. Kus32116781
LJul 6 · 11:45A. Drozd195680O. Kus331111113
WJun 23 · 17:25A. Drozd331111113O. Kus259790
LJun 23 · 15:10A. Drozd34711881O. Kus4111811113
WMay 27 · 09:05A. Drozd331111113O. Kus218580
LMay 27 · 06:10A. Drozd269890O. Kus331111113
LMar 9 · 07:10A. Drozd4311812662O. Kus529111011113
LMar 4 · 14:45A. Drozd193790O. Kus331111113
A. Drozd10
LSep 13 · 12:40A. Drozd1.6291111692P. Jokiel2.15118611113WSep 13 · 10:45A. Drozd1.50118114123O. Skvor2.50811811102WSep 13 · 09:45A. Drozd1.831711610113P. Jokiel1.83158111282WSep 11 · 17:10A. Drozd2.051113113K. Baros1.6891160WSep 11 · 16:10A. Drozd1.911113113O. Skvor1.8061190LSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123LAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd1.50114771O. Kus2.5061111113WAug 25 · 08:15O. Kus2.256770A. Drozd1.571111113LAug 25 · 07:15A. Drozd1.807690L. Kantor1.911111113
O. Kus10
WSep 13 · 11:15P. Jokiel1.91119781O. Kus1.8091111113LSep 13 · 10:15O. Kus2.1011711742O. Skvor1.67311611113LSep 10 · 12:43O. Kus2.508148101L. Dzida1.50111211123WSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113LSep 10 · 11:10O. Kus2.20511111112R. Solle1.61111187133LSep 10 · 09:40T. Kindl1.5011118113O. Kus2.50981191LSep 3 · 20:48V. Molin1.801112113O. Kus1.9181060LSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113WAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd1.50114771O. Kus2.5061111113LAug 25 · 08:15O. Kus2.256770A. Drozd1.571111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Drozd
Nothing scheduled
O. Kus1 of 3 neutral
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