TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114143
Played Sep 11Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210118711711911
Ivan Jemelka
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:23 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Ivan Jemelka below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 97 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 55.6%
97 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 2–1 Ivan Jemelka Ivan Jemelka has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:23What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Ogrocki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1360 vs Jemelka 1396
Jemelka
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 40% vs Jemelka 60%
Jemelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 60% vs Jemelka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki +1 · Jemelka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ogrocki) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jemelka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 1.67 / Jemelka 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jemelka)+1.8pp
TT Cup · #13114143
Ogrocki1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 59 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it73% 41 of 56
Jemelka2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog58% won 26 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back26% 5 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeOgrocki2wins
AwayJemelka1wins
Ogrocki leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki1Jemelka2n = 3Jemelka took 2 of 3
S2Ogrocki2Jemelka1n = 3Ogrocki took 2 of 3
S3Ogrocki2Jemelka1n = 3Ogrocki took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricOgrockiJemelkaO − JBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match29.327.0+2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiJemelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 461 vs 52 / 11046.6%47.3%215 / 461 vs 52 / 110Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiOgrocki 1.67/Jemelka 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jemelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki—31611113I. Jemelka—1114561
LAug 16 · 06:45T. Ogrocki—3740I. Jemelka—1111113
WJun 15 · 15:15T. Ogrocki—1111113I. Jemelka—6240
T. Ogrocki10
WSep 11 · 20:55O. Skvor1.61117871T. Ogrocki2.2081111113WSep 11 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.10813891T. Ogrocki1.67111111113LSep 11 · 18:10O. Skvor2.1071111113T. Ogrocki1.67116971WSep 10 · 20:44J. Vanous1.80851191T. Ogrocki1.9111115113LSep 10 · 20:10J. Vanous2.00831111113T. Ogrocki1.7311114942LSep 10 · 19:10T. Ogrocki2.7511371242F. Theodor1.405111110113LSep 10 · 17:40V. Reska1.441113113T. Ogrocki2.6361180WSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki1.6712128113P. Jokiel2.1010101151WSep 9 · 16:10O. Skvor1.5361011101T. Ogrocki2.3811125123WSep 9 · 15:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113P. Jokiel2.10791191
I. Jemelka10
WSep 11 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.1011119113O. Skvor1.67781171LSep 11 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.5713711113I. Jemelka2.251111671LSep 9 · 21:15O. Skvor1.70611117123I. Jemelka1.96115811102WSep 9 · 20:10J. Vanous1.6761161152I. Jemelka2.10114115113WSep 9 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.2011126113O. Skvor1.615101151LSep 9 · 17:40V. Molin1.53111176123I. Jemelka2.38591111102WSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113WSep 5 · 17:40I. Jemelka2.101812113R. Benesz1.67161070
Upcoming Matches
T. Ogrocki
Nothing scheduled
I. Jemelka
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