TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13122325
Played Sep 13Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113411511119911
Dominik Stefek
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Dominik Stefek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 85 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Dominik Stefek at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 1–2 Dominik Stefek Tomas Ogrocki has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:43What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1357 vs Stefek 1324
Ogrocki
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 60% vs Stefek 80%
Stefek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 50% vs Stefek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki +2 · Stefek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 2.50 / Stefek 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Stefek)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13122325
Ogrocki2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 59 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back28% 22 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Stefek1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 16 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it57% 12 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeOgrocki1wins
AwayStefek2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderStefek leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrockin = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayStefek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki0Stefek3n = 3Stefek took 3 of 3
S2Ogrocki1Stefek2n = 3Stefek took 2 of 3
S3Ogrocki0Stefek3n = 3Stefek took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricOgrockiStefekO − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match32.039.0−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 464 vs 47 / 9746.8%48.5%217 / 464 vs 47 / 97Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekOgrocki 2.50/Stefek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 29 · 12:40T. Ogrocki2691160D. Stefek351113113
LAug 29 · 12:10T. Ogrocki219480D. Stefek331111113
WAug 15 · 09:45T. Ogrocki49911414113D. Stefek49119111262
T. Ogrocki10
WSep 13 · 05:45T. Ogrocki1.501111119113R. Jancak2.5089131182WSep 11 · 20:55O. Skvor1.61117871T. Ogrocki2.2081111113LSep 11 · 20:10T. Ogrocki1.6712117792I. Jemelka2.101081111113WSep 11 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.10813891T. Ogrocki1.67111111113LSep 11 · 18:10O. Skvor2.1071111113T. Ogrocki1.67116971WSep 10 · 20:44J. Vanous1.80851191T. Ogrocki1.9111115113LSep 10 · 20:10J. Vanous2.00831111113T. Ogrocki1.7311114942LSep 10 · 19:10T. Ogrocki2.7511371242F. Theodor1.405111110113LSep 10 · 17:40V. Reska1.441113113T. Ogrocki2.6361180WSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki1.6712128113P. Jokiel2.1010101151
D. Stefek10
WSep 13 · 06:15J. Sindler1.9110550D. Stefek1.801211113WSep 11 · 09:20D. Stefek1.831111113J. Sindler1.839580LSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123WSep 11 · 06:45D. Stefek1.83124114113J. Sindler1.83101181182WSep 11 · 05:45D. Stefek1.61611811113R. Jancak2.2011211722WSep 5 · 20:40R. Benesz1.773880D. Stefek1.871111113LSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 19:10R. Benesz1.911111113D. Stefek1.806990LSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113LSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102
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