TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13121904
Played Sep 13Finished
Jaroslav Sindler
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012511511––––
Dominik Stefek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Dominik Stefek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 54 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Dominik Stefek at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 7–9 Dominik Stefek Jaroslav Sindler has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Stefek
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1383 vs Stefek 1324
Sindler
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 60% vs Stefek 80%
Stefek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 60% vs Stefek 40%
Sindler
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler +1 · Stefek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.91 / Stefek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stefek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13121904
Sindler1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog56% won 79 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back33% 22 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Stefek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 16 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it57% 12 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler4wins
AwayStefek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindlern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStefek75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler2Stefek8n = 10Stefek took 8 of 10
S2Sindler5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S3Sindler3Stefek7n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S4Sindler4Stefek2n = 6Sindler took 4 of 6
S5Sindler2Stefek1n = 3Sindler took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerStefekSindler − StefekBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.238.6−2.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime394 / 771 vs 47 / 9751.1%48.5%394 / 771 vs 47 / 97Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekSindler 1.91/Stefek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 06:15J. Sindler2010550D. Stefek341211113
LSep 11 · 09:20J. Sindler229580D. Stefek331111113
LSep 11 · 06:45J. Sindler48101181182D. Stefek42124114113
WSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler46811411123D. Stefek50119119102
WSep 5 · 13:40J. Sindler50611913113D. Stefek44116111152
WAug 27 · 09:09J. Sindler4312713113D. Stefek4110111191
LAug 27 · 07:40J. Sindler247980D. Stefek331111113
WAug 13 · 12:40J. Sindler341211113D. Stefek2210570
LAug 13 · 10:10J. Sindler355119101D. Stefek4311911123
LAug 13 · 09:13J. Sindler40991391D. Stefek44111111113
J. Sindler10
WSep 11 · 13:20Z. Chovancik1.771970J. Sindler1.871111113LSep 11 · 12:15J. Sindler1.8011660Z. Chovancik1.911311113WSep 11 · 10:45T. Stempak1.839850J. Sindler1.831111113WSep 11 · 10:15P. Sturma1.91118861J. Sindler1.8071111113LSep 11 · 09:20D. Stefek1.831111113J. Sindler1.839580WSep 11 · 08:15J. Sindler1.5311611113R. Jancak2.38911781LSep 11 · 06:45D. Stefek1.83124114113J. Sindler1.83101181182WSep 11 · 06:15P. Sturma1.9141111662J. Sindler1.80118911113LSep 9 · 13:15J. Sindler1.6541191162L. Jr2.03114118113WSep 9 · 12:15J. Sindler1.6711118113L. Jr2.10761151
D. Stefek10
WSep 13 · 06:45T. Ogrocki2.5011451192D. Stefek1.50311119113WSep 11 · 09:20D. Stefek1.831111113J. Sindler1.839580LSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123WSep 11 · 06:45D. Stefek1.83124114113J. Sindler1.83101181182WSep 11 · 05:45D. Stefek1.61611811113R. Jancak2.2011211722WSep 5 · 20:40R. Benesz1.773880D. Stefek1.871111113LSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 19:10R. Benesz1.911111113D. Stefek1.806990LSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113LSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102
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