TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13115026
Played Sep 11Finished
Zdenek Chovancik
Home
1.77
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111911711––––
Jaroslav Sindler
Away
1.87
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZdenek Chovancik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZdenek Chovancik above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 50 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Zdenek Chovancik at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Chovancik 7–6 Jaroslav Sindler Jaroslav Sindler has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Chovancik beat Sindler 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:56What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.77 (51%)
Chovancik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chovancik 1344 vs Sindler 1388
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chovancik 100% vs Sindler 60%
Chovancik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chovancik 70% vs Sindler 50%
Chovancik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chovancik +5 · Sindler -1
Chovancik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chovancik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chovancik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChovancik 1.77 / Sindler 1.87
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chovancik)+2.6pp
TT Cup · #13115026
Chovancik1.77
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Sindler1.87
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog56% won 98 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back35% 29 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChovancik5wins
AwaySindler5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChovancik66.7%4 of 6
AwaySindler75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chovancik6Sindler4n = 10Chovancik took 6 of 10
S2Chovancik5Sindler5n = 10split evenly
S3Chovancik6Sindler4n = 10Chovancik took 6 of 10
S4Chovancik3Sindler5n = 8Sindler took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChovancikSindlerC − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.437.8−0.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChovancikSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime33 / 80 vs 393 / 76941.3%51.1%33 / 80 vs 393 / 769Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.840.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChovancikChovancik 1.77/Sindler 1.87
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chovancik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 12:15Z. Chovancik—1311113J. Sindler—11660
LJul 3 · 12:55Z. Chovancik—961151J. Sindler—11113113
LJul 3 · 11:15Z. Chovancik—411771J. Sindler—11411113
WJun 15 · 09:15Z. Chovancik—121013113J. Sindler—10121191
LJun 15 · 05:45Z. Chovancik—11871142J. Sindler—811118113
WJun 12 · 05:45Z. Chovancik—8111110113J. Sindler—11791262
LJun 5 · 07:10Z. Chovancik—8611101J. Sindler—11119123
WMay 28 · 08:40Z. Chovancik—11117113J. Sindler—891171
WMay 28 · 05:40Z. Chovancik—1111113J. Sindler—9980
LJan 15 · 08:15Z. Chovancik—117961J. Sindler—91111113
Z. Chovancik10
WSep 11 · 12:15J. Sindler1.8011660Z. Chovancik1.911311113WSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272WSep 11 · 09:45T. Stempak1.8091161182Z. Chovancik1.91118119113WSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 12:10Z. Chovancik1.5711116113R. Zajac2.25571141LSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 10:10F. Mandrysz1.6791113101Z. Chovancik2.1011515123LAug 17 · 09:15L. Snr1.531111113Z. Chovancik2.389480WAug 17 · 08:15Z. Chovancik1.8081111113K. Drozd1.91114621LAug 17 · 06:45L. Snr1.831111113Z. Chovancik1.835690
J. Sindler10
LSep 11 · 12:15J. Sindler1.8011660Z. Chovancik1.911311113WSep 11 · 10:45T. Stempak1.839850J. Sindler1.831111113WSep 11 · 10:15P. Sturma1.91118861J. Sindler1.8071111113LSep 11 · 09:20D. Stefek1.831111113J. Sindler1.839580WSep 11 · 08:15J. Sindler1.5311611113R. Jancak2.38911781LSep 11 · 06:45D. Stefek1.83124114113J. Sindler1.83101181182WSep 11 · 06:15P. Sturma1.9141111662J. Sindler1.80118911113LSep 9 · 13:15J. Sindler1.6541191162L. Jr2.03114118113WSep 9 · 12:15J. Sindler1.6711118113L. Jr2.10761151LSep 9 · 10:45J. Sevecek1.73711311113J. Sindler2.0011911692
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