TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13112524
Played Sep 11Finished
Zdenek Chovancik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111191161012117
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZdenek Chovancik above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 95 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Chovancik 8–6 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:13What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sturma
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Chovancik
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chovancik 1316 vs Sturma 1289
Chovancik
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chovancik 80% vs Sturma 20%
Chovancik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chovancik 70% vs Sturma 20%
Chovancik
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chovancik +3 · Sturma -2
Chovancik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chovancik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChovancik 1.83 / Sturma 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chovancik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13112524
Chovancik1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Sturma1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChovancik5wins
AwaySturma5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChovancik80%4 of 5
AwaySturma80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chovancik5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S2Chovancik5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S3Chovancik3Sturma7n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S4Chovancik3Sturma4n = 7Sturma took 4 of 7
S5Chovancik2Sturma1n = 3Chovancik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChovancikSturmaC − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.938.0−1.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChovancikSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 78 vs 408 / 84139.7%48.5%31 / 78 vs 408 / 841Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChovancikChovancik 1.83/Sturma 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chovancik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chovancik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 13:15Z. Chovancik—12117113P. Sturma—1061171
LSep 2 · 10:40Z. Chovancik—114118122P. Sturma—511611143
WJul 10 · 08:45Z. Chovancik—11116113P. Sturma—681171
WJul 10 · 07:10Z. Chovancik—911118113P. Sturma—11691152
LJun 23 · 10:15Z. Chovancik—7870P. Sturma—1111113
LFeb 6 · 12:45Z. Chovancik—101110P. Sturma—1213113
LFeb 2 · 17:46Z. Chovancik—61111101P. Sturma—11613123
WFeb 2 · 16:40Z. Chovancik—1161110123P. Sturma—911212102
LJan 30 · 11:10Z. Chovancik—7750P. Sturma—1111113
WJan 9 · 09:15Z. Chovancik—12118113P. Sturma—1081181
Z. Chovancik10
LSep 11 · 13:20Z. Chovancik1.771970J. Sindler1.871111113WSep 11 · 12:15J. Sindler1.8011660Z. Chovancik1.911311113WSep 11 · 09:45T. Stempak1.8091161182Z. Chovancik1.91118119113WSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 12:10Z. Chovancik1.5711116113R. Zajac2.25571141LSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 10:10F. Mandrysz1.6791113101Z. Chovancik2.1011515123LAug 17 · 09:15L. Snr1.531111113Z. Chovancik2.389480WAug 17 · 08:15Z. Chovancik1.8081111113K. Drozd1.91114621LAug 17 · 06:45L. Snr1.831111113Z. Chovancik1.835690
P. Sturma10
WSep 11 · 12:50P. Sturma2.0012119113T. Stempak1.731081191WSep 11 · 11:45T. Stempak1.80118911102P. Sturma1.91811117123LSep 11 · 10:15P. Sturma1.91118861J. Sindler1.8071111113LSep 11 · 08:48R. Jancak1.61712511113P. Sturma2.20111011972WSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123LSep 11 · 07:15R. Jancak1.6791111113P. Sturma2.10116861LSep 11 · 06:15P. Sturma1.9141111662J. Sindler1.80118911113LSep 8 · 12:43P. Sturma1.83811991L. Snr1.8311411113LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122
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