TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13112415
Played Sep 11Finished
Tomas Stempak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1188119111171012
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:34 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Stempak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Stempak above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 98 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Tomas Stempak at 54.1%
98 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Stempak 8–6 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:34What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stempak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Stempak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stempak 1309 vs Sturma 1279
Stempak
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stempak 60% vs Sturma 20%
Stempak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stempak 50% vs Sturma 20%
Stempak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stempak -2 · Sturma -3
Sturma
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stempak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStempak 1.80 / Sturma 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stempak)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13112415
Stempak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Sturma1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 135 of 273
Down 0–1, comes back40% 55 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStempak6wins
AwaySturma4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStempak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStempak100%3 of 3
AwaySturma57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stempak3Sturma7n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S2Stempak5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S3Stempak3Sturma7n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S4Stempak5Sturma3n = 8Stempak took 5 of 8
S5Stempak4Sturma0n = 4Stempak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStempakSturmaStempak − SturmaBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.341.6−2.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStempakSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 72 vs 408 / 84243.1%48.5%31 / 72 vs 408 / 842Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StempakStempak 1.80/Sturma 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stempak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 09:20T. Stempak—11111011113P. Sturma—13812782
WAug 19 · 07:10T. Stempak—1111413133P. Sturma—1381111112
LJul 21 · 11:15T. Stempak—10590P. Sturma—1211113
WApr 27 · 15:10T. Stempak—113118113P. Sturma—91181162
WMar 25 · 18:08T. Stempak—11611113P. Sturma—911971
LMar 25 · 15:10T. Stempak—611881P. Sturma—11911113
LFeb 25 · 15:15T. Stempak—511641P. Sturma—11711113
LFeb 11 · 11:15T. Stempak—8870P. Sturma—1111113
WFeb 3 · 13:10T. Stempak—11118113P. Sturma—881151
WJan 19 · 08:10T. Stempak—1291411113P. Sturma—141112962
T. Stempak10
LSep 11 · 12:50P. Sturma2.0012119113T. Stempak1.731081191LSep 11 · 10:45T. Stempak1.839850J. Sindler1.831111113LSep 11 · 09:45T. Stempak1.8091161182Z. Chovancik1.91118119113WAug 19 · 09:20T. Stempak2.0011111011113P. Sturma1.7313812782WAug 19 · 08:10L. Snr1.6711911892T. Stempak2.10711911113WAug 19 · 07:10T. Stempak2.631111413133P. Sturma1.441381111112WAug 19 · 05:40D. Stefek1.80611111182T. Stempak1.91117138113WJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 12:15R. Zajac1.801211113T. Stempak1.9110610LJul 21 · 11:15T. Stempak1.8310590P. Sturma1.831211113
P. Sturma10
WSep 11 · 12:50P. Sturma2.0012119113T. Stempak1.731081191LSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272LSep 11 · 10:15P. Sturma1.91118861J. Sindler1.8071111113LSep 11 · 08:48R. Jancak1.61712511113P. Sturma2.20111011972WSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123LSep 11 · 07:15R. Jancak1.6791111113P. Sturma2.10116861LSep 11 · 06:15P. Sturma1.9141111662J. Sindler1.80118911113LAug 19 · 09:20T. Stempak2.0011111011113P. Sturma1.7313812782LAug 19 · 07:10T. Stempak2.631111413133P. Sturma1.441381111112WJul 21 · 11:15T. Stempak1.8310590P. Sturma1.831211113
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