TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12276883
Played Jul 21Finished
Jakub Lysek
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111210811119211
Tomas Stempak
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:43 and never touched — 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Lysek to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Lysek above · Tomas Stempak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 93 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Jakub Lysek at 73.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Lysek 2–2 Tomas Stempak Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Lysek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysek 1373 vs Stempak 1266
Lysek
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysek 40% vs Stempak 0%
Lysek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysek 40% vs Stempak 0%
Lysek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysek -3 · Stempak -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Lysek) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stempak form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysek 1.61 / Stempak 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Lysek)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12276883
Lysek1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 20 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Stempak2.20
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 8 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeLysek2wins
AwayStempak2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysek2Stempak2n = 4split evenly
S2Lysek3Stempak1n = 4Lysek took 3 of 4
S3Lysek1Stempak3n = 4Stempak took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricLysekStempakL − SBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match36.534.2+2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysekStempakBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 313 vs 26 / 6544.7%40%140 / 313 vs 26 / 65Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysekLysek 1.61/Stempak 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Lysek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stempak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek—1112113T. Stempak—51090
LJan 4 · 15:45J. Lysek—14119111T. Stempak—16611133
LDec 11 · 17:15J. Lysek—8980T. Stempak—1111113
WDec 7 · 07:15J. Lysek—11119113T. Stempak—881171
J. Lysek10
LJul 22 · 08:43J. Lysek1.834360J. Sevecek1.831111113LJul 22 · 08:15J. Lysek1.5311117101L. Snr2.3813811123WJul 22 · 06:45J. Sevecek1.53119881J. Lysek2.3881111113LJul 22 · 06:15P. Sturma2.001110811113J. Lysek1.7331211992LJul 21 · 11:45J. Lysek1.736680P. Sturma2.001111113LJul 21 · 10:45J. Lysek1.83111111982R. Zajac1.83991311113WJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek2.101112113T. Stempak1.6751090LJul 18 · 09:30J. Lysek1.77911981L. Stempak1.8711511113WJul 18 · 07:45L. Stempak1.441612711122J. Lysek2.631414117143WJul 18 · 07:15L. Snr1.80151191182J. Lysek1.91177116113
T. Stempak10
WAug 19 · 09:20T. Stempak2.0011111011113P. Sturma1.7313812782WAug 19 · 08:10L. Snr1.6711911892T. Stempak2.10711911113WAug 19 · 07:10T. Stempak2.631111413133P. Sturma1.441381111112WAug 19 · 05:40D. Stefek1.80611111182T. Stempak1.91117138113LJul 21 · 12:15R. Zajac1.801211113T. Stempak1.9110610LJul 21 · 11:15T. Stempak1.8310590P. Sturma1.831211113LJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek2.101112113T. Stempak1.6751090LJul 8 · 08:50A. Strelec1.3551111113T. Stempak3.00117971LJul 8 · 08:15J. Sevecek1.82121111113T. Stempak1.90146981LJul 8 · 07:15T. Stempak1.99113871J. Sindler1.6891111113
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