TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12272290
Played Jul 21Finished
Jakub Lysek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151210119––––
Tomas Stempak
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:23 and never touched — 72.6% is still 72.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Lysek to win
72.6%
72.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Lysek above · Tomas Stempak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Lysek at 72.6%
58 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Lysek 2–2 Tomas Stempak Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:23What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stempak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysek 1362 vs Stempak 1277
Lysek
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysek 60% vs Stempak 0%
Lysek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysek 50% vs Stempak 20%
Lysek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysek -1 · Stempak -5
Stempak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Stempak) · live re-read · sealed at 27% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stempak form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysek 2.10 / Stempak 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Stempak)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12272290
Lysek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 62 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back27% 23 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Stempak1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeLysek2wins
AwayStempak2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysek2Stempak2n = 4split evenly
S2Lysek3Stempak1n = 4Lysek took 3 of 4
S3Lysek1Stempak3n = 4Stempak took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricLysekStempakL − SBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match36.534.2+2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysekStempakBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 313 vs 26 / 6544.7%40%140 / 313 vs 26 / 65Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StempakLysek 2.10/Stempak 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Stempak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek—1112113T. Stempak—51090
LJan 4 · 15:45J. Lysek—14119111T. Stempak—16611133
LDec 11 · 17:15J. Lysek—8980T. Stempak—1111113
WDec 7 · 07:15J. Lysek—11119113T. Stempak—881171
J. Lysek10
LJul 22 · 08:43J. Lysek1.834360J. Sevecek1.831111113LJul 22 · 08:15J. Lysek1.5311117101L. Snr2.3813811123WJul 22 · 06:45J. Sevecek1.53119881J. Lysek2.3881111113LJul 22 · 06:15P. Sturma2.001110811113J. Lysek1.7331211992LJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 11:45J. Lysek1.736680P. Sturma2.001111113LJul 21 · 10:45J. Lysek1.83111111982R. Zajac1.83991311113LJul 18 · 09:30J. Lysek1.77911981L. Stempak1.8711511113WJul 18 · 07:45L. Stempak1.441612711122J. Lysek2.631414117143WJul 18 · 07:15L. Snr1.80151191182J. Lysek1.91177116113
T. Stempak10
WAug 19 · 09:20T. Stempak2.0011111011113P. Sturma1.7313812782WAug 19 · 08:10L. Snr1.6711911892T. Stempak2.10711911113WAug 19 · 07:10T. Stempak2.631111413133P. Sturma1.441381111112WAug 19 · 05:40D. Stefek1.80611111182T. Stempak1.91117138113WJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 12:15R. Zajac1.801211113T. Stempak1.9110610LJul 21 · 11:15T. Stempak1.8310590P. Sturma1.831211113LJul 8 · 08:50A. Strelec1.3551111113T. Stempak3.00117971LJul 8 · 08:15J. Sevecek1.82121111113T. Stempak1.90146981LJul 8 · 07:15T. Stempak1.99113871J. Sindler1.6891111113
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