TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12258866
Played Jul 18Finished
Jakub Lysek
Home
1.77
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911115911811––
Lukas Stempak
Away
1.87
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingJakub Lysek above · Lukas Stempak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11
75 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Lysek 1–2 Lukas Stempak Jakub Lysek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lysek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stempak form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysek 1.77 / Stempak 1.87
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lysek)+2.6pp
TT Cup · #12258866
Lysek1.77
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 20 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Stempak1.87
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLysek1wins
AwayStempak2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderStempak leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysek1Stempak2n = 3Stempak took 2 of 3
S2Lysek1Stempak2n = 3Stempak took 2 of 3
S3Lysek2Stempak1n = 3Lysek took 2 of 3
S4Lysek0Stempak3n = 3Stempak took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricLysekStempakL − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match45.348.3−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysekStempakBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 309 vs 17 / 4145%41.5%139 / 309 vs 17 / 41Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysekLysek 1.77/Stempak 1.87
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lysek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stempak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 18 · 07:45J. Lysek—1414117143L. Stempak—1612711122
LJul 11 · 06:40J. Lysek—8713111L. Stempak—111111133
LMay 24 · 08:15J. Lysek—118991L. Stempak—81111113
J. Lysek10
LJul 22 · 08:43J. Lysek1.834360J. Sevecek1.831111113LJul 22 · 08:15J. Lysek1.5311117101L. Snr2.3813811123WJul 22 · 06:45J. Sevecek1.53119881J. Lysek2.3881111113LJul 22 · 06:15P. Sturma2.001110811113J. Lysek1.7331211992LJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 11:45J. Lysek1.736680P. Sturma2.001111113LJul 21 · 10:45J. Lysek1.83111111982R. Zajac1.83991311113WJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek2.101112113T. Stempak1.6751090WJul 18 · 07:45L. Stempak1.441612711122J. Lysek2.631414117143WJul 18 · 07:15L. Snr1.80151191182J. Lysek1.91177116113
L. Stempak10
WSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280LSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192WAug 22 · 08:50P. Sturma1.611011111282L. Stempak2.20127714113LAug 22 · 08:10R. Jancak1.91111188143L. Stempak1.80981111122LAug 22 · 07:10L. Stempak1.7310790P. Sturma2.001211113LAug 22 · 05:40L. Jr2.251111113L. Stempak1.577790LJul 25 · 08:43L. Stempak1.3641090L. Jr3.001112113LJul 18 · 07:45L. Stempak1.441612711122J. Lysek2.631414117143
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