TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12279116
Played Jul 22Finished
Jakub Lysek
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11131187111012––
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Lysek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Lysek above · Lukas Krupnik Snr below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 83 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jakub Lysek at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Lysek 4–0 Lukas Krupnik Snr Lukas Krupnik Snr has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:52What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lysek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Lysek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysek 1372 vs Snr 1287
Lysek
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysek 20% vs Snr 60%
Snr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysek 50% vs Snr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysek +1 · Snr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Lysek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysek 1.53 / Snr 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Lysek)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #12279116
Lysek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite49% won 20 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Snr2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 15 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeLysek4wins
AwaySnr0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLysek leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysek100%4 of 4
AwaySnrn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysek4Snr0n = 4Lysek took 4 of 4
S2Lysek2Snr2n = 4split evenly
S3Lysek3Snr1n = 4Lysek took 3 of 4
S4Lysek2Snr1n = 3Lysek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricLysekSnrL − SBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match43.236.5+6.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysekSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 316 vs 34 / 7844.6%43.6%141 / 316 vs 34 / 78Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysekLysek 1.53/Snr 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.8%
Lysek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 18 · 07:15J. Lysek—177116113L. Snr—151191182
WJun 23 · 09:45J. Lysek—111110133L. Snr—7912111
WJun 14 · 07:40J. Lysek—11813113L. Snr—5111181
WJun 12 · 06:15J. Lysek—1111113L. Snr—6750
J. Lysek10
LJul 22 · 08:43J. Lysek1.834360J. Sevecek1.831111113WJul 22 · 06:45J. Sevecek1.53119881J. Lysek2.3881111113LJul 22 · 06:15P. Sturma2.001110811113J. Lysek1.7331211992LJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 11:45J. Lysek1.736680P. Sturma2.001111113LJul 21 · 10:45J. Lysek1.83111111982R. Zajac1.83991311113WJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek2.101112113T. Stempak1.6751090LJul 18 · 09:30J. Lysek1.77911981L. Stempak1.8711511113WJul 18 · 07:45L. Stempak1.441612711122J. Lysek2.631414117143WJul 18 · 07:15L. Snr1.80151191182J. Lysek1.91177116113
L. Snr10
WSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113WSep 2 · 08:55J. Sindler1.671181171L. Snr2.1013117113WSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113LSep 2 · 07:10L. Snr2.10681151J. Sindler1.6711113113LSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LSep 1 · 09:14L. Snr1.4099100F. Mandrysz2.751111123WSep 1 · 08:10L. Snr1.5713113113F. Mandrysz2.251171181LJul 18 · 07:15L. Snr1.80151191182J. Lysek1.91177116113
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