TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12256772
Played Jul 18Finished
Lukas Stempak
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
161412147111171214
Jakub Lysek
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingLukas Stempak above · Jakub Lysek below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 118 set 5, 12-14
118 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Stempak 3–1 Jakub Lysek Jakub Lysek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Stempak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStempak 1.44 / Lysek 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Stempak)-0.0pp
TT Cup · #12256772
Stempak1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite40% won 6 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it63% 5 of 8
Lysek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 64 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back28% 24 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStempak3wins
AwayLysek1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderStempak leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStempak66.7%2 of 3
AwayLysekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stempak3Lysek1n = 4Stempak took 3 of 4
S2Stempak2Lysek2n = 4split evenly
S3Stempak2Lysek2n = 4split evenly
S4Stempak4Lysek0n = 4Stempak took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home375%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStempakLysekS − LBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match45.843.2+2.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStempakLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime18 / 42 vs 139 / 31042.9%44.8%18 / 42 vs 139 / 310Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StempakStempak 1.44/Lysek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Stempak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 18 · 09:30L. Stempak—11511113J. Lysek—911981
LJul 18 · 07:45L. Stempak—1612711122J. Lysek—1414117143
WJul 11 · 06:40L. Stempak—111111133J. Lysek—8713111
WMay 24 · 08:15L. Stempak—81111113J. Lysek—118991
L. Stempak10
WSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280LSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192WAug 22 · 08:50P. Sturma1.611011111282L. Stempak2.20127714113LAug 22 · 08:10R. Jancak1.91111188143L. Stempak1.80981111122LAug 22 · 07:10L. Stempak1.7310790P. Sturma2.001211113LAug 22 · 05:40L. Jr2.251111113L. Stempak1.577790LJul 25 · 08:43L. Stempak1.3641090L. Jr3.001112113LJul 25 · 08:15L. Stempak1.501110881M. Sobota2.5091211113
J. Lysek10
LJul 22 · 08:43J. Lysek1.834360J. Sevecek1.831111113LJul 22 · 08:15J. Lysek1.5311117101L. Snr2.3813811123WJul 22 · 06:45J. Sevecek1.53119881J. Lysek2.3881111113LJul 22 · 06:15P. Sturma2.001110811113J. Lysek1.7331211992LJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 11:45J. Lysek1.736680P. Sturma2.001111113LJul 21 · 10:45J. Lysek1.83111111982R. Zajac1.83991311113WJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek2.101112113T. Stempak1.6751090LJul 18 · 09:30J. Lysek1.77911981L. Stempak1.8711511113WJul 18 · 07:15L. Snr1.80151191182J. Lysek1.91177116113
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