TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12272416
Played Jul 21Finished
Jakub Lysek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611811––––
Patrik Sturma
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Lysek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Lysek above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Jakub Lysek at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Lysek 24–24 Patrik Sturma Dead even across their 48 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:05What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lysek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-24 in 48
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysek 1376 vs Sturma 1362
Lysek
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysek 60% vs Sturma 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysek 50% vs Sturma 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysek -1 · Sturma +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lysek)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysek 1.73 / Sturma 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lysek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #12272416
Lysek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 20 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Sturma2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 113 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back37% 42 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysek3wins
AwaySturma7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSturma leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySturma87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysek2Sturma8n = 10Sturma took 8 of 10
S2Lysek5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S3Lysek5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S4Lysek4Sturma4n = 8split evenly
S5Lysek1Sturma3n = 4Sturma took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysekSturmaL − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.142.8−3.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysekSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 312 vs 340 / 69444.9%49%140 / 312 vs 340 / 694Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysekLysek 1.73/Sturma 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lysek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 16 · 08:45J. Lysek—911130P. Sturma—1113153
WJul 16 · 06:45J. Lysek—111112113P. Sturma—5131091
LJul 14 · 18:45J. Lysek—39111162P. Sturma—111197113
LJul 10 · 13:10J. Lysek—91161192P. Sturma—119114113
LJul 10 · 10:10J. Lysek—1014891P. Sturma—121211113
WJul 10 · 06:10J. Lysek—81214113P. Sturma—11101291
WJun 27 · 14:15J. Lysek—111146113P. Sturma—47111192
LJun 26 · 11:10J. Lysek—71113952P. Sturma—1191111113
LJun 25 · 11:15J. Lysek—5990P. Sturma—1111113
LJun 23 · 13:10J. Lysek—851161P. Sturma—11118113
J. Lysek10
LJul 22 · 08:43J. Lysek1.834360J. Sevecek1.831111113LJul 22 · 08:15J. Lysek1.5311117101L. Snr2.3813811123WJul 22 · 06:45J. Sevecek1.53119881J. Lysek2.3881111113LJul 22 · 06:15P. Sturma2.001110811113J. Lysek1.7331211992LJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 10:45J. Lysek1.83111111982R. Zajac1.83991311113WJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek2.101112113T. Stempak1.6751090LJul 18 · 09:30J. Lysek1.77911981L. Stempak1.8711511113WJul 18 · 07:45L. Stempak1.441612711122J. Lysek2.631414117143WJul 18 · 07:15L. Snr1.80151191182J. Lysek1.91177116113
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930WJul 22 · 06:15P. Sturma2.001110811113J. Lysek1.7331211992
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