TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12278198
Played Jul 22Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1131012811119119
Jakub Lysek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Jakub Lysek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 59.8%
95 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 26–24 Jakub Lysek Jakub Lysek has won 24 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lysek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-24 in 50
Sturma
Correct
gap of 2 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1393 vs Lysek 1345
Sturma
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 80% vs Lysek 20%
Sturma
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 60% vs Lysek 40%
Sturma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma +4 · Lysek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Sturma) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysek form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 2.00 / Lysek 1.73
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Sturma)+11.0pp
TT Cup · #12278198
Sturma2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 121 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back38% 45 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Lysek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite46% won 20 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma7wins
AwayLysek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSturma leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma87.5%7 of 8
AwayLysekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma8Lysek2n = 10Sturma took 8 of 10
S2Sturma4Lysek6n = 10Lysek took 6 of 10
S3Sturma5Lysek5n = 10split evenly
S4Sturma4Lysek4n = 8split evenly
S5Sturma4Lysek1n = 5Sturma took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaLysekS − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.840.2+3.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime347 / 704 vs 141 / 31849.3%44.3%347 / 704 vs 141 / 318Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaSturma 2.00/Lysek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 22 · 06:15P. Sturma—1110811113J. Lysek—31211992
WJul 21 · 11:45P. Sturma—1111113J. Lysek—6680
WJul 16 · 08:45P. Sturma—1113153J. Lysek—911130
LJul 16 · 06:45P. Sturma—5131091J. Lysek—111112113
WJul 14 · 18:45P. Sturma—111197113J. Lysek—39111162
WJul 10 · 13:10P. Sturma—119114113J. Lysek—91161192
WJul 10 · 10:10P. Sturma—121211113J. Lysek—1014891
LJul 10 · 06:10P. Sturma—11101291J. Lysek—81214113
LJun 27 · 14:15P. Sturma—47111192J. Lysek—111146113
WJun 26 · 11:10P. Sturma—1191111113J. Lysek—71113952
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930WAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler1.83913971P. Sturma1.83111111113
J. Lysek10
LJul 22 · 08:43J. Lysek1.834360J. Sevecek1.831111113LJul 22 · 08:15J. Lysek1.5311117101L. Snr2.3813811123WJul 22 · 06:45J. Sevecek1.53119881J. Lysek2.3881111113LJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 11:45J. Lysek1.736680P. Sturma2.001111113LJul 21 · 10:45J. Lysek1.83111111982R. Zajac1.83991311113WJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek2.101112113T. Stempak1.6751090LJul 18 · 09:30J. Lysek1.77911981L. Stempak1.8711511113WJul 18 · 07:45L. Stempak1.441612711122J. Lysek2.631414117143WJul 18 · 07:15L. Snr1.80151191182J. Lysek1.91177116113
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