TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12256789
Played Jul 18Finished
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1517117911116811
Jakub Lysek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Snr above · Jakub Lysek below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 106 set 5, 8-11
106 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Snr 0–4 Jakub Lysek Lukas Krupnik Snr has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Lysek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.80 / Lysek 1.91
Signal prob.45% / 56%
Edge (Lysek)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12256789
Snr1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite46% won 11 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it67% 8 of 12
Lysek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 64 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back28% 24 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSnr0wins
AwayLysek4wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLysek leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnrn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayLysek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr0Lysek4n = 4Lysek took 4 of 4
S2Snr2Lysek2n = 4split evenly
S3Snr1Lysek3n = 4Lysek took 3 of 4
S4Snr1Lysek2n = 3Lysek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSnrLysekS − LBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match36.543.2−6.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 76 vs 139 / 31042.1%44.8%32 / 76 vs 139 / 310Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysekSnr 1.80/Lysek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.5%
Lysek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 18 · 07:15L. Snr—151191182J. Lysek—177116113
LJun 23 · 09:45L. Snr—7912111J. Lysek—111110133
LJun 14 · 07:40L. Snr—5111181J. Lysek—11813113
LJun 12 · 06:15L. Snr—6750J. Lysek—1111113
L. Snr10
WSep 7 · 09:13L. Snr1.73911611113A. Strelec2.0011911872WSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113WSep 2 · 08:55J. Sindler1.671181171L. Snr2.1013117113WSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113LSep 2 · 07:10L. Snr2.10681151J. Sindler1.6711113113LSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LSep 1 · 09:14L. Snr1.4099100F. Mandrysz2.751111123WSep 1 · 08:10L. Snr1.5713113113F. Mandrysz2.251171181
J. Lysek10
LJul 22 · 08:43J. Lysek1.834360J. Sevecek1.831111113LJul 22 · 08:15J. Lysek1.5311117101L. Snr2.3813811123WJul 22 · 06:45J. Sevecek1.53119881J. Lysek2.3881111113LJul 22 · 06:15P. Sturma2.001110811113J. Lysek1.7331211992LJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 11:45J. Lysek1.736680P. Sturma2.001111113LJul 21 · 10:45J. Lysek1.83111111982R. Zajac1.83991311113WJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek2.101112113T. Stempak1.6751090LJul 18 · 09:30J. Lysek1.77911981L. Stempak1.8711511113WJul 18 · 07:45L. Stempak1.441612711122J. Lysek2.631414117143
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