TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12279075
Played Jul 22Finished
Jan Sevecek
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118911811811––
Jakub Lysek
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:42 and never touched — 72.2% is still 72.2%
Graded at full timeJan Sevecek to win
72.2%
72.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Sevecek above · Jakub Lysek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jan Sevecek at 72.2%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jan Sevecek 5–2 Jakub Lysek Jakub Lysek has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:42What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Sevecek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Sevecek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sevecek 1408 vs Lysek 1345
Sevecek
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sevecek 60% vs Lysek 20%
Sevecek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sevecek 60% vs Lysek 40%
Sevecek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sevecek -1 · Lysek -4
Lysek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Sevecek) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysek form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSevecek 1.53 / Lysek 2.38
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Sevecek)+10.0pp
TT Cup · #12279075
Sevecek1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 22 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Lysek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 63 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back27% 23 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSevecek5wins
AwayLysek2wins
3 of 7 to a deciderSevecek leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSevecek75%3 of 4
AwayLysek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sevecek4Lysek3n = 7Sevecek took 4 of 7
S2Sevecek5Lysek2n = 7Sevecek took 5 of 7
S3Sevecek4Lysek3n = 7Sevecek took 4 of 7
S4Sevecek3Lysek2n = 5Sevecek took 3 of 5
S5Sevecek2Lysek1n = 3Sevecek took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricSevecekLysekS − LBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match41.335.6+5.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSevecekLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 86 vs 141 / 31855.8%44.3%48 / 86 vs 141 / 318Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SevecekSevecek 1.53/Lysek 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.8%
Sevecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 22 · 08:43J. Sevecek—1111113J. Lysek—4360
LJul 22 · 06:45J. Sevecek—119881J. Lysek—81111113
WJul 16 · 05:45J. Sevecek—111199113J. Lysek—79111172
WJun 18 · 10:45J. Sevecek—611911123J. Lysek—119117102
WJun 15 · 09:45J. Sevecek—61111113J. Lysek—112751
LJan 21 · 14:40J. Sevecek—107111192J. Lysek—121199113
WJan 16 · 16:10J. Sevecek—1111113J. Lysek—9970
J. Sevecek10
WSep 4 · 13:20O. Vaclahovsky1.7710980J. Sevecek1.871211113WSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113WSep 4 · 11:15P. Chvojka2.00711991J. Sevecek1.7311611113LSep 4 · 10:15J. Sevecek1.73115781O. Vaclahovsky2.0071111113LAug 28 · 09:08J. Sevecek1.8011118792J. Sindler1.91691111113WAug 28 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.50111147133A. Strelec2.50991111112WAug 28 · 06:40J. Sevecek1.80711911113J. Sindler1.9111711992LAug 28 · 05:40J. Sevecek1.538790J. Matus2.381111113LAug 26 · 09:13J. Sevecek1.50612451I. Jemelka2.50111011113WAug 26 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.801111113I. Jemelka1.918920
J. Lysek10
LJul 22 · 08:43J. Lysek1.834360J. Sevecek1.831111113LJul 22 · 08:15J. Lysek1.5311117101L. Snr2.3813811123LJul 22 · 06:15P. Sturma2.001110811113J. Lysek1.7331211992LJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 11:45J. Lysek1.736680P. Sturma2.001111113LJul 21 · 10:45J. Lysek1.83111111982R. Zajac1.83991311113WJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek2.101112113T. Stempak1.6751090LJul 18 · 09:30J. Lysek1.77911981L. Stempak1.8711511113WJul 18 · 07:45L. Stempak1.441612711122J. Lysek2.631414117143WJul 18 · 07:15L. Snr1.80151191182J. Lysek1.91177116113
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