TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12457466
Played Aug 19Finished
Dominik Stefek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111171113118811
Tomas Stempak
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Tomas Stempak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 97 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Dominik Stefek at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:39What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1362 vs Stempak 1271
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 80% vs Stempak 20%
Stefek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 50% vs Stempak 10%
Stefek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -1 · Stempak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stempak form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.80 / Stempak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stefek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12457466
Stefek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite36% won 5 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Stempak1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 7 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back27% 3 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekStempakBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 52 vs 27 / 6642.3%40.9%22 / 52 vs 27 / 66Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.80/Stempak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stempak won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
D. Stefek10
WSep 5 · 20:40R. Benesz1.773880D. Stefek1.871111113LSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 19:10R. Benesz1.911111113D. Stefek1.806990LSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113LSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102LSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek2.2042100O. Skvor1.611111123LSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153LSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek1.67116111152J. Sindler2.10611913113LAug 30 · 12:38D. Stefek2.501111641O. Vaclahovsky1.5013711113WAug 30 · 11:40D. Stefek2.63951112113O. Vaclahovsky1.44111181042
T. Stempak10
WAug 19 · 09:20T. Stempak2.0011111011113P. Sturma1.7313812782WAug 19 · 08:10L. Snr1.6711911892T. Stempak2.10711911113WAug 19 · 07:10T. Stempak2.631111413133P. Sturma1.441381111112WJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 12:15R. Zajac1.801211113T. Stempak1.9110610LJul 21 · 11:15T. Stempak1.8310590P. Sturma1.831211113LJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek2.101112113T. Stempak1.6751090LJul 8 · 08:50A. Strelec1.3551111113T. Stempak3.00117971LJul 8 · 08:15J. Sevecek1.82121111113T. Stempak1.90146981LJul 8 · 07:15T. Stempak1.99113871J. Sindler1.6891111113
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