TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12457506
Played Aug 19Finished
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117911119811911
Tomas Stempak
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:40 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Snr to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Snr above · Tomas Stempak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 97 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Snr at 55.8%
97 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Snr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Snr 1394 vs Stempak 1297
Snr
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 60% vs Stempak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 60% vs Stempak 30%
Snr
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr -2 · Stempak +3
Stempak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Snr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stempak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.67 / Stempak 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Snr)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12457506
Snr1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 20 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Stempak2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 7 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back27% 3 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrStempakBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 102 vs 29 / 6847.1%42.7%48 / 102 vs 29 / 68Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.67/Stempak 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stempak won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
L. Snr10
WSep 7 · 09:13L. Snr1.73911611113A. Strelec2.0011911872WSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113WSep 2 · 08:55J. Sindler1.671181171L. Snr2.1013117113WSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113LSep 2 · 07:10L. Snr2.10681151J. Sindler1.6711113113LSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LSep 1 · 09:14L. Snr1.4099100F. Mandrysz2.751111123WSep 1 · 08:10L. Snr1.5713113113F. Mandrysz2.251171181
T. Stempak10
WAug 19 · 09:20T. Stempak2.0011111011113P. Sturma1.7313812782WAug 19 · 07:10T. Stempak2.631111413133P. Sturma1.441381111112WAug 19 · 05:40D. Stefek1.80611111182T. Stempak1.91117138113WJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 12:15R. Zajac1.801211113T. Stempak1.9110610LJul 21 · 11:15T. Stempak1.8310590P. Sturma1.831211113LJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek2.101112113T. Stempak1.6751090LJul 8 · 08:50A. Strelec1.3551111113T. Stempak3.00117971LJul 8 · 08:15J. Sevecek1.82121111113T. Stempak1.90146981LJul 8 · 07:15T. Stempak1.99113871J. Sindler1.6891111113
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