TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12457484
Played Aug 19Finished
Tomas Stempak
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
111311841113111311
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:40 and never touched — 66.0% is still 66.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
66.0%
66.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Stempak above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 106 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 66.0%
106 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Stempak 8–6 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:40What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Sturma
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Stempak
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stempak 1345 vs Sturma 1316
Stempak
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stempak 40% vs Sturma 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stempak 20% vs Sturma 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stempak +2 · Sturma +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Sturma)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStempak 2.63 / Sturma 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Sturma)+1.5pp
TT Cup · #12457484
Stempak2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 11 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back43% 6 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Sturma1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite45% won 82 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it54% 49 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStempak6wins
AwaySturma4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStempak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStempak100%3 of 3
AwaySturma57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stempak3Sturma7n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S2Stempak5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S3Stempak3Sturma7n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S4Stempak5Sturma3n = 8Stempak took 5 of 8
S5Stempak4Sturma0n = 4Stempak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStempakSturmaStempak − SturmaBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.341.6−2.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStempakSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 70 vs 388 / 79644.3%48.7%31 / 70 vs 388 / 796Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaStempak 2.63/Sturma 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stempak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 09:20T. Stempak—11111011113P. Sturma—13812782
WAug 19 · 07:10T. Stempak—1111413133P. Sturma—1381111112
LJul 21 · 11:15T. Stempak—10590P. Sturma—1211113
WApr 27 · 15:10T. Stempak—113118113P. Sturma—91181162
WMar 25 · 18:08T. Stempak—11611113P. Sturma—911971
LMar 25 · 15:10T. Stempak—611881P. Sturma—11911113
LFeb 25 · 15:15T. Stempak—511641P. Sturma—11711113
LFeb 11 · 11:15T. Stempak—8870P. Sturma—1111113
WFeb 3 · 13:10T. Stempak—11118113P. Sturma—881151
WJan 19 · 08:10T. Stempak—1291411113P. Sturma—141112962
T. Stempak10
WAug 19 · 09:20T. Stempak2.0011111011113P. Sturma1.7313812782WAug 19 · 08:10L. Snr1.6711911892T. Stempak2.10711911113WAug 19 · 05:40D. Stefek1.80611111182T. Stempak1.91117138113WJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 12:15R. Zajac1.801211113T. Stempak1.9110610LJul 21 · 11:15T. Stempak1.8310590P. Sturma1.831211113LJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek2.101112113T. Stempak1.6751090LJul 8 · 08:50A. Strelec1.3551111113T. Stempak3.00117971LJul 8 · 08:15J. Sevecek1.82121111113T. Stempak1.90146981LJul 8 · 07:15T. Stempak1.99113871J. Sindler1.6891111113
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 19 · 09:20T. Stempak2.0011111011113P. Sturma1.7313812782WJul 21 · 11:15T. Stempak1.8310590P. Sturma1.831211113
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