TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12272420
Played Jul 21Finished
Tomas Stempak
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012511911––––
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Stempak above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Stempak 6–5 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sturma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stempak 1315 vs Sturma 1350
Sturma
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stempak 0% vs Sturma 60%
Sturma
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stempak 10% vs Sturma 50%
Sturma
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stempak -5 · Sturma +1
Stempak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sturma)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stempak form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStempak 1.83 / Sturma 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sturma)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12272420
Stempak1.83
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Sturma1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStempak6wins
AwaySturma4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStempak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStempak100%4 of 4
AwaySturma66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stempak4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S2Stempak4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S3Stempak5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S4Stempak5Sturma3n = 8Stempak took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStempakSturmaStempak − SturmaBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.939.2−2.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStempakSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime26 / 63 vs 339 / 69341.3%48.9%26 / 63 vs 339 / 693Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaStempak 1.83/Sturma 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 27 · 15:10T. Stempak—113118113P. Sturma—91181162
WMar 25 · 18:08T. Stempak—11611113P. Sturma—911971
LMar 25 · 15:10T. Stempak—611881P. Sturma—11911113
LFeb 25 · 15:15T. Stempak—511641P. Sturma—11711113
LFeb 11 · 11:15T. Stempak—8870P. Sturma—1111113
WFeb 3 · 13:10T. Stempak—11118113P. Sturma—881151
WJan 19 · 08:10T. Stempak—1291411113P. Sturma—141112962
WJan 11 · 08:40T. Stempak—11512123P. Sturma—61110101
LDec 16 · 12:40T. Stempak—5680P. Sturma—1111113
WDec 11 · 14:45T. Stempak—101511113P. Sturma—1213981
T. Stempak10
WAug 19 · 09:20T. Stempak2.0011111011113P. Sturma1.7313812782WAug 19 · 08:10L. Snr1.6711911892T. Stempak2.10711911113WAug 19 · 07:10T. Stempak2.631111413133P. Sturma1.441381111112WAug 19 · 05:40D. Stefek1.80611111182T. Stempak1.91117138113WJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 12:15R. Zajac1.801211113T. Stempak1.9110610LJul 21 · 09:45J. Lysek2.101112113T. Stempak1.6751090LJul 8 · 08:50A. Strelec1.3551111113T. Stempak3.00117971LJul 8 · 08:15J. Sevecek1.82121111113T. Stempak1.90146981LJul 8 · 07:15T. Stempak1.99113871J. Sindler1.6891111113
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 19 · 09:20T. Stempak2.0011111011113P. Sturma1.7313812782LAug 19 · 07:10T. Stempak2.631111413133P. Sturma1.441381111112
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